Hungarian forint hits multi-year high against dollar and euro
The Hungarian forint has surged to levels not seen in years, strengthening both against the euro and the U.S. dollar. Analysts highlight improved investor sentiment, international market trends, and expectations surrounding U.S. monetary policy as key drivers of the rally.
Hungarian forint reaches new milestones
On 3 September, the forint closed at 393.5 per euro, marking its strongest level in a year. By 5 September, it traded at 392.97 per euro and 336.86 per dollar, according to Tőzsdefórum. This represents a more than two-year high against the U.S. currency, with similar levels last observed in July 2023.
The forint also maintained stability against the Swiss franc, holding close to 418.5.
International factors fuelling the rally
The currency’s upward momentum is partly due to the weakening of the dollar. The dollar index (DXY) dropped by 0.6% in recent trading, while the euro gained 0.7% against the U.S. currency. This downturn is linked to expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its 17 September meeting, with nearly all investors anticipating a 25 basis point reduction, Világgazdaság reports.
Upcoming U.S. labour market data, particularly unemployment figures, could further influence Fed policy. Signs of weakness in the American job market may strengthen the case for additional rate cuts, which would put even more pressure on the dollar.
Domestic implications
According to ATV, Hungarian Finance Minister Mihály Varga recently stressed that the era of relying on a weak forint is over, meaning that a stable currency is crucial for maintaining price stability and supporting economic convergence.
A stronger forint benefits Hungary by making imports cheaper and easing inflationary pressures, which have weighed heavily on households in recent years. However, economists caution that exchange rates remain sensitive to global market movements and central bank decisions, both at home and abroad.
What to expect?
For now, the forint’s resilience reflects a combination of favourable global conditions and improving investor sentiment. Still, markets remain volatile, and upcoming economic data from the U.S. and Europe, as well as further monetary policy steps by the Hungarian National Bank, will be decisive in determining whether the Hungarian currency can maintain its strong performance in the coming weeks.
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