Hungarian youth: incapable of independence from parents?

As 444.hu reported, the latest demographic statistics are not quite what the government wanted. In the first two months of this year, the number of people who were born and died decreased and increased respectively, compared to the same period last year. Back in 2016, the government was proud to announce that the country’s fertility rate was at 1.5. This means that on average, a couple had 1.5 children. The government’s long-term goal is to bring this figure up to 2.

However, it is not easy to halt the population drop:

• Population growth rates are also affected by death rates and migration.
• After the communist system’s collapse, it was expected that the fertility rate would drop due to the big changes that came with it.
• The Hungarian youth is uncertain about their future.
• Hungarian parents are discouraging their children from having children themselves.

The issue was discussed during an Eötvös Group meeting which focused on fertility rates and family sociology. Two professors held presentations: demographer Zsolt Spéder and sociologist Beata Dávid.

Spéder summarised KSH’s latest demographic findings and shared his thoughts. He believes that Hungary has bigger demographic problems than 25 years ago.

The fertility rate was lowest in 1999 and 2011 when it dropped to 1.23. Spéder believes that the biggest reason for this is Hungarian couples postponing childbearing. After the fall of the communist system, people adopted different lifestyles, and education proliferated in society – people became much more career-orientated, pushing family life into the background.

Since the change of regime, couples are having children minimum 5 years later in their lives than previously; in the early 90s, women had their first child at 22, while today, this number is pushed up to 27.

According to Spéder, former communist countries are at a critical point in their fertility pathways. They will either follow pathways similar to France and Scandinavia where the fertility rate is at 2. However, if the fertility rate stays below 2, these countries may end up having a demographic composition similar to Germany and Southern Europe.

However, in Hungary, children are not only born later, but the fertility rate is also lower; so, while in the 1990s, 92% of 40-year-old women had children, this statistic dropped to 84% in 2016. Even though parents who have 2 children are more likely to have a third one, many people only choose to have one or none at all.

If people delay their decision to have children too late, they increase the risk of having no children at all. They may only have a couple of years to create the necessary environment for childbearing; for example, a partner, a family home and employment.

If someone chooses to have a child within 3 years, they are unlikely to be able to create the right environment to do so. While in the Netherlands, it is possible in 80% of the time, in Hungary, it is only in 30-40% of cases.  Therefore, Hungarian couples delay childbearing even further, thus reducing the likelihood of having a child at all.