Hungary is unlikely to meet its previously discussed 2030 target for adopting the euro, as a number of economic requirements could push back the timeline for joining the eurozone.
According to a report by Portfolio, analysts at MBH Bank believe Hungary may need more time than previously expected before meeting all the requirements necessary for adopting the euro.
During a recent press briefing, Zoltán Árokszállási, head of MBH’s Analysis Centre, said the 2030 target would require a particularly tight schedule. Hungary would not only have to meet the necessary economic criteria but would also need to spend at least two years in the ERM II exchange rate mechanism, often referred to as the “waiting room” for euro adoption.
Inflation could be one of the biggest obstacles
Analysts at MBH believe inflation remains one of the main challenges on the road to eurozone membership. While favourable inflation figures may occasionally appear, adopting the common currency requires long-term price stability, something that has proved difficult for Hungary in recent years.
The bank expects average annual inflation to reach around 2.7% this year. In 2026, however, price growth could accelerate again and approach 3.7%. The gradual removal of current price-control measures and a recovery in consumer spending may contribute to rising inflationary pressure.
Árokszállási suggested that the 2030 target may be overly ambitious.
“We think Hungary will probably not be ready to join the eurozone by 2030, but rather one or two years later,” he said.
Inflation is not the only factor that will influence the timeline. Economic growth and fiscal stability will also play a role in determining when Hungary could realistically adopt the euro.
Countries seeking to join the eurozone must meet the Maastricht criteria, which set requirements for inflation, budget deficits, public debt levels and exchange-rate stability. Meeting these conditions has often taken years. Today, 21 European Union member states use the euro. Croatia became the newest member of the eurozone in 2023 after nearly a decade of preparation.
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Strong forint and faster growth expected
The forint’s exchange rate was also discussed during the briefing. In recent months, several exporters have argued that the strengthening Hungarian currency has made it more difficult to compete abroad. MBH analysts, however, believe the relationship between exchange-rate movements and export performance is often overstated.
The bank expects the euro-forint exchange rate to remain close to 360 in the coming years.
According to Árokszállási, the long-term competitiveness of Hungarian companies will depend far more on productivity gains and efficiency improvements than on short-term currency fluctuations.
MBH forecasts economic growth of 1.6% this year, driven mainly by stronger consumer spending. Growth could accelerate to around 3% next year, particularly if progress is made in securing access to European Union funds. Over the longer term, growth above 3% could be achievable, although this would require significant improvements in productivity across the Hungarian economy.
The country’s economic performance in the coming years may also influence the timetable for adopting the euro.
At the same time, euro adoption rarely follows the original schedule. Several countries in the region have had to revise their target dates when inflation, fiscal deficits or other economic indicators failed to develop as expected. As a result, setting a target date alone does not guarantee when a country will ultimately join the eurozone.
Read more: Hungary and the Euro by 2030: Turning Point or Dead End?
