How Hungary could feel the impact of the Middle East military conflict

A fresh military escalation in the Middle East, involving Iran, Israel and the United States, is raising fears not only of armed confrontation but of significant economic fallout that could ripple through the entire global economy. Analysts warn that energy markets are already pricing in higher geopolitical risk, pushing up oil prices and increasing uncertainty for investors worldwide.

According to reports cited by Reuters, traders had begun building a geopolitical premium into crude prices even before the latest strikes. Forecasts for 2026 suggest markets are factoring in an extra USD 4–10 per barrel, despite earlier expectations of oversupply that would have kept prices moderate.

Three channels pushing oil higher

According to Portfolio’s report, experts identify three main risks to oil prices.

First, simple uncertainty: even the threat of instability in the Middle East has already lifted Brent crude above USD 70 per barrel.

Second, potential disruption to Iranian exports. Although sanctions have long constrained Tehran, it remains an important supplier to China. Analysts at Barclays estimate that losing just one million barrels per day could erase the expected global surplus and push Brent towards USD 80.

Third, the most serious danger involves shipping routes. Any threat to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly a fifth of global oil supplies, could trigger sharp spikes in transport and insurance costs. In extreme scenarios, prices might jump towards USD 90–100.