Poll shock: Tisza Party’s rise halted; Magyar claims supermajority ahead

According to an August poll by the IDEA Institute, the Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, continues to hold a solid lead over Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, but its growth has slowed while the ruling party has made gains. Péter Magyar dismissed the poll’s findings, pointing instead to his own research, which he claims shows sustained strong momentum.

What does the IDEA Institute say?

In its latest opinion survey, based on a representative sample of 1,500 respondents, the IDEA Institute reports that Fidesz has expanded its voter base while support for the Tisza Party has levelled off. As a result, Tisza’s lead over Fidesz has narrowed from 9% in May to 4% among the general population (33% vs. 29%). The poll also indicates that only three parties would surpass the parliamentary threshold, down from four in May, as the far-right Mi Hazánk would fail to cross the 5% required for parliamentary representation. Among likely voters, Tisza holds a seven-point lead (46% vs. 39%), while the Democratic Coalition (DK) registers 5% support, according to a Blikk report.

Tisza pushes back with its own survey

Péter Magyar responded to the poll on Facebook earlier in the afternoon, asserting that Tisza had conducted its own opinion survey over the weekend. According to the party’s internal data, it continues to hold a 10% lead among the general population. Although Magyar did not provide figures for likely voters, he argued that such a margin would secure a comfortable two-thirds parliamentary majority were elections held this Sunday.

“Each day, more and more people are realising that only TISZA can build a functioning and humane country,” the politician wrote.

Further polling insights

Polling aggregator partpreferencia.hu continues to compile recent public opinion research, with data collected from late June to early August available online here.

Government-leaning pollsters such as the Hungarian Social Research Institute and Real-PR 93 report that the governing parties hold a significant 5–8% lead. By contrast, independent pollsters Publicus Institute and Republikon Institute found Tisza ahead by 10% and 9%, respectively, within comparable voter groups. The seven-point advantage for Tisza reported by IDEA falls within this spectrum.

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