Senior political scientist’s striking prognosis: despite Péter Magyar’s lead, Orbán likely to win the elections – here’s why, UPDATED

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Gábor Török, one of Hungary’s leading political scientists, has offered a striking projection for the 2026 general election, stating that Péter Magyar is unlikely to win based on current data. Just 18 months ago, neither Péter

Nobody knew Péter Magyar and the Tisza Party 1.5 years ago

The last parliamentary election took place in April 2022, just two months after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Despite a united opposition at the time, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s peace rhetoric, missteps by the opposition’s joint prime ministerial candidate, and the almost unlimited resources of Orbán’s Fidesz party—compared to the six opposition parties—resulted in a fourth consecutive landslide victory for the incumbent.

Since then, however, the Hungarian government has been grappling with an economic crisis and soaring inflation. Last year’s clemency scandal led to the resignation of two prominent Fidesz politicians—the President of Hungary and the former Minister of Justice (both women)—and brought Péter Magyar, the former justice minister’s ex-husband and leader of the Tisza Party, into the spotlight. Since November, Magyar’s Tisza Party has been leading in polls conducted by non-government-aligned pollsters.

Péter Magyar Tisza party
Photo: FB/Péter Magyar

Senior political scientist Török: Orbán will win

Despite these polling trends, senior Hungarian political analyst Gábor Török believes that, based on current information, Prime Minister Orbán is likely to win the upcoming general election. He attributes this to Fidesz’s financial dominance, the delayed and risky candidate selection process within the Tisza Party, and the government’s effective campaign strategies—bolstered by financial incentives such as artificial price cuts and the expansion of the family tax allowance system.

Gábor Török
Gábor Török with PM Orbán, former PM Gyurcsány, prime ministerial candidates Gábor Vona (Jobbik), András Schiffer (LMP), FM Szijjártó, Mayor Karácsony. Photo: FB/Gábor Török

Török forecasts that Fidesz will likely secure a narrow majority in the next parliament, meaning Orbán may fall short of the two-thirds supermajority he enjoyed between 2018 and 2026. He added that the Tisza Party would require a significantly larger lead over Fidesz, as well as stronger policy credibility and more effective everyday communication, to realistically challenge for power.

Read more about what poll results show in Hungary.

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