War in Ukraine: How long can Russia tolerate its dependency on China?

Russia’s economic room for manoeuvre is continuing to shrink as the country becomes increasingly reliant on the export of energy resources and metals – commodities that are now sold predominantly to China.

China apparently isn’t as good a partner as they thought

According to a recent assessment by Ukraine’s foreign intelligence service, this growing dependence leaves Moscow ever more vulnerable to shifts in Chinese market demand.

The report, published on the agency’s official website, states that bilateral trade between Russia and China fell notably in the first nine months of 2025. Total trade volume dropped to USD 163.6 billion, a 9.4 per cent decline compared with the same period the previous year.

The contraction affected both directions of trade: Chinese exports to Russia fell by 11.3 per cent to USD 73.6 billion, while Russian shipments to China dipped by 7.7 per cent to USD 90 billion.

• Tens of thousands left without power as Russia and Ukraine hit each other’s energy infrastructure

Nobody wants to buy Russian energy anymore

The primary driver behind this downturn was the sharp fall in global energy prices. The value of Russian energy exports plummeted by almost 19 per cent – a loss of around USD 14 billion between January and September.

As the Kremlin’s state budget remains heavily dependent on revenues from oil and gas, such a drop leaves little room to compensate through other sectors.