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Will Orbán stay prime minister until 2030? A new poll yields surprising results
The vast majority of Hungarian voters would vote for the Tisza Party in an upcoming general election held this Sunday, yet far fewer believe there will be a change of government than party preference alone would suggest. Below are the most interesting findings of a new poll.
Solid Tisza lead in exciting new poll
According to data from Publicus shared by Népszava, it remains the case that Péter Magyar, the former justice minister (and now ex-husband of a central figure in the political scandal bearing his name), who for more than a year has topped every non-government-aligned poll in the wake of the mercy scandal, is still not convincing voters that a change of government will take place next April. The figures now released justify less confidence in a future change of government than the headline poll numbers might imply. Nevertheless, for Péter Magyar, the concrete results are reassuring.
- Among the total population, Tisza leads by 33% to 28%, meaning that Viktor Orbán still has hundreds of thousands more votes overall. This is considered by experts to be the single most relevant data point ahead of the election, yet it still demonstrates a notable lead for Tisza.
- Among voters who are certain to vote for a party, the lead is 48% to 40%, indicating that Tisza is very solidly ahead.
- In both segments, both Tisza and Fidesz strengthened compared with November, albeit only marginally and within the margin of error.
- According to Publicus, only Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) and DK (Democratic Coalition) would reach Parliament; other polls tend to place DK on a smaller share.
Growing support behind PM Orbán
Yet beneath the surface, clouds are gathering around Tisza. Publicus CEO András Pulai notes that the governing party is gradually reclaiming more of its increasingly unsettled voters through a series of welfare and support measures announced and implemented month after month (the fourteenth monthly pension, “gun money”, income tax exemptions, etc.). As previously reported, the consumer confidence index is also rising, which favours the governing parties.
- The surface shows Péter Magyar soaring, but an emerging trend could deliver victory to PM Orbán in 2026
The surface suggests Péter Magyar is soaring, but an emerging trend could deliver victory to Prime Minister Orbán in 2026.
- Hungarian tabloid defies court ruling over Tisza Party misinformation
Budapest versus the countryside
The country is divided on this issue. In Budapest, a majority (51%) is confident that by no later than May they will no longer refer to Orbán as Prime Minister and that the current ruling parties will no longer hold a parliamentary majority. By contrast, 50% of rural residents believe the government will remain in power, with only 25% expecting otherwise.
- Major shake-up planned for Hungary’s local governments if Fidesz wins in 2026
Given that, in the Hungarian electoral system, votes from smaller villages typically carry more weight than those from major cities—particularly Budapest—it is quite possible that in 2026 a substantial victory for Péter Magyar in the capital and larger cities could still be overshadowed by Orbán’s dominance in villages, enabling Fidesz to secure a narrow parliamentary majority. This is why Magyar travels constantly to the countryside, appearing only rarely in Budapest or other large regional towns.
- Click for more articles of ours concerning the 2026 general elections.
Orbán’s strategy is the opposite: in major rural towns, he welcomes supporters from smaller settlements at closed-door events that require prior registration. The key question is which strategy will ultimately lead to victory.
Finally, a survey by Magyar Társadalomkutató found as recently as February this year that 55% of respondents expected Orbán to remain in power, while only 28% expected a Tisza victory.
“Népszava” polls are exactly as Toroczkai Lászlő has stated – they are made and published to form opinion … NOT record it!
Yes, the notion that Magyar is ‘soaring’ reminds me of so many polls in my country that showed, in the final weeks of the campaign, Kamala Harris ‘soaring’ over Donald Trump with a comfortable 3-5 point margin.
One old liberal pollster, Jane Ann Selzer (the US equivalent of ‘Népszava’ actually predicted that Harris would massacre Trump, by 18 points, in Iowa – a rural state, no less!
The actual result – Trump pasted her by, if memory serves, 8 points in Iowa.
What is the reality in Hungary?
Magyar peaked early and is slowly sinking down to a result not much better than Marki-Zay got in 2024.
@mouton – I hate to break the news to you – but Hungary is hardly the Land of Milk and Honey you appear to believe it is, under our Politicians leadership?
That doesn’t change the fact, that only dilettantes are trusting a traitor to his family.
And the majority of the country, outside of Budapest in particular, is not made of dilettantes.
The urban factory drones don’t even believe morality is a real thing. Of course they would vote for such a deranged person. And that is exactly why, the rest of us is responsible to stop them at the voting desk.
But we all would like to have a real election, where the opposition candidate is, I don’t know, like a person who is not so downright evil, that no other consideration is needed?
Why can’t the cityfolk chose such a person for decades now, is besides me.
Thank you, Dear Norbert, but, I am under no illusions.
I listen to every aspect of your society, every day.
I know what you’re problems are, and I know where Hungary is both stronger and weaker than my country.
Every country has major problems, but for Leftists that is always a sign that everything must be blown up.
Problem is : their solutions are worse than the problems.
Perilous for Hungary.
Mouton, opportunist in your commentaries that ALL – your opinion(s) – the highly questionable lack of – level of discernment you apply “formed” by you, last paragraph of your contribution on the subject of this article, that personifies your Political position.
In belief that Victor Mihaly. Orban remains the FUTURE of Hungary – in the BIG global, not just Europe of the “place” of the world, current, short to long term, its FUTURE and individual with a CV that factually has of Orban, if Hungary don’t “rid” of him, what he has “delivered” them, commencing 16th June 1989 the LIES on that day he “mouthed” off to Hungarians – if come Spring of 2026 Victor Mihaly. Orban and his Fidesz Government are not OUTED from Power & the Government of Hungary, it will spell end of HOPE for liberty, freedom personal professional and life Family qualities, on-going distillation of any form of DEMOCRACY and as a country for Hungary – GLOMM.
Oh, did you not understand, that in the fables, stories and movies (before the Netflix black-washing) the one who says “any opinion other then mine is evil” is actually the villain?
There is a reason or that, you know.
Mouton’s voices his opinions, and you are talking the end of all hope.
How pathetic.
A mute person makes a better argument, because he at least stays silent, while you only hurt your position’s legitimacy with visions of Armageddon, if you don’t get your way. Like a toddler trying to blackmail his parents. It’s actually sad.
Tisza who???!!!
You and the commies can keep pushing that despicable, liberal, wife-basher as much as you like, but he will never be anything other than a despicable, liberal, wife-basher!