Significant questions remain surrounding Hungary’s mooted “asset recovery” drive, yet a group of Hungarian economists has already advanced what would, by domestic standards, be a strikingly novel proposal: how to invest the reclaimed billions in a manner that generates substantial annual returns, facilitates the transfer of cutting-edge technology to Hungary, and supports the country’s most innovative firms.
A Norwegian-style fund with annual returns in the hundreds of billions
A newly published study proposes the long-term investment of several trillion forints in assets expected to return to state ownership. Commissioned by the Free Market Foundation and authored by economists Levente Nagy-Pál, Dr László Vértessy and József Katona, the report argues that such funds should not be used to plug budget deficits, but instead be channelled into a sovereign investment fund modelled on Norway’s, hvg.hu wrote.
Estimates suggest that assets worth between 3,000 and 5,000 billion forints could revert to the state in the coming years. Meanwhile, opposition figure Péter Magyar has claimed that as much as 60,000 billion forints (EUR 132 billion) has flowed into private hands via public procurement schemes — though many of these cases are now time-barred, and others resulted in genuine investments.
Rather than spending the recovered sums outright, the authors contend that investing them would yield far greater long-term benefits. At an annual return of 4–6 per cent, the fund could generate revenues of 200–300 billion forints each year.
Under the proposal, the fund would incorporate a wide range of assets, including state property transferred to public-interest asset management foundations, public capital invested in private equity funds, holdings linked to MBH Bank, the remaining assets of the Hungarian central bank’s foundations, 4iG’s 1,300-billion-forint contract portfolio, and resources associated with the National Cultural Fund. The list, the authors note, could be expanded further.
Following Norway’s lead
The study points to Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global — the world’s most prominent sovereign wealth fund — as its principal model. Rather than spending its oil and gas revenues immediately, Norway invested them to build national wealth over the long term. Similar funds now operate across the Middle East, Asia and Europe.
The proposed Hungarian vehicle would be named the National Innovation and Future Capital Fund. The state would act solely as owner, with oversight entrusted to an independent board or supervisory body, while investment decisions would be made by a professionally selected management team operating under competitive conditions.
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Between 60 and 70 per cent of the assets would be allocated to stable, income-generating investments capable of delivering the targeted 4–6 per cent annual return. A further 20–30 per cent would be directed towards strategic growth sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductor manufacturing and other advanced technologies. The remaining 10–15 per cent would support Hungarian start-ups.
Half of the expected annual returns would be reinvested in the fund, while the remainder could be deployed by the state for strategic purposes. The study identifies priority areas including artificial intelligence, biotechnology, the energy transition, digitalisation, as well as the development of education and healthcare.
According to the authors, the fund could begin operations within roughly eighteen months, following a preparatory phase of no more than three months. In their view, it would not only serve to expand Hungary’s national wealth but also help rebuild public trust and underpin long-term economic development.
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