PM Orbán in deep trouble, Tisza riding high? New polls show what people think of the past 4 years and what they’re afraid of

Fewer and fewer people trust pollsters these days, especially on party preferences. Yet ahead of a parliamentary election, the big question always looms: do people want the current Orbán government to carry on because it suits them personally (or what might replace it feels too terrifying), or does the majority see the economy as worse, demanding something fresh? On this front, Fidesz has no reason to kick back, according to the latest survey.

Hungarians are fed up with their lot

Republikon discovered that 75% of all respondents say they live worse than four years ago, Népszava wrote. Even so, the real puzzle is how many the government can convince; this stems not from its rule, but from outside forces (war, pandemic, economic crisis, weather, and so on). If every one of them voted against Fidesz, Orbán’s crew wouldn’t enjoy such high support across the whole population (a Median poll from early January puts the ruling parties at 33%).

Among Fidesz voters, 38% – a hefty third – reckon things are running worse than in 2022, yet they’d still back Orbán for another term. That means they don’t blame the government for the economic woes, or they weigh non-financial factors when casting their vote.

The current gloomy mood shines through in Republikon’s survey from 10-15 December, where just 8% of Hungarians deemed the economic situation plain good. No shock, then, that 93% of Tisza supporters view their living standards as dire, while 80% of undecideds feel worse off than in 2022. Republikon asks: how many believe a government change will improve their lot and vote that way on 12 April? Or perhaps they fear Hungary getting dragged into war, savable only by Viktor Orbán.

Massive divides among Hungarian voters

As the world watches whether Viktor Orbán – early bird of the global “patriot” flock – can cling to power, a huge age chasm has cracked open among voters. Orbán’s lot lead 49% among those over 65, but under-30s barely back the government at all – it’s 67-12 for Tisza. With an ageing society, seniors outnumber youth, and their turnout at elections is rock-solid compared to the young – a decade-long trend.

No wonder Péter Magyar campaigns on every Tisza youth, convincing their grandma or grandad to vote for change, and vice versa. Viktor Orbán lately railed in Miskolc that parents bear responsibility for where their kids cast votes in what he calls the fateful April parliamentary elections, reports Telex.

Education splits society too: the more educated, the more they lean Tisza – among degree-holders, it’s 53-25, while Fidesz tops 56% among those with just eight grades max. Same with settlements: the bigger the town, the stronger the Tisza pull. In Budapest, Tisza leads 53-25; in villages, Fidesz edges 39-37.

What are Hungarians scared of?

A Median study cited by 24.hu reveals Hungarians fear an EU exit more than war dragging in the country – child protection worries them more than Ukraine’s fallout in Europe. Plus, crumbling education and healthcare, alongside rampant corruption, rile them up even more.

Parliamentary elections are held on 12 April, with the new government – whoever wins – forming in May.

If you had to put money on the winner, the picture would be pretty clear, as you can also read in our article.

Of course, there is still a long way to go until the elections, and there may even be a surprise guest turning up to turbocharge Fidesz’s campaign.