All the analyses point to a huge defeat for PM Orbán in the 2026 elections: Péter Magyar can win supermajority
Péter Tölgyessy, a Hungarian jurist and political scientist, regularly says that the Hungarian electoral system favours the winner greatly. As a result, one can win the electoral districts with only 35-40%, and even gain a supermajority. According to the findings of new research conducted by Policy Solutions and Závec Research, it may happen that the Hungarian voters will turn to the Tisza Party in the 2026 general elections and give a supermajority to Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga. Based on Policy Solutions, the Hungarian voters’ majority believe the Tisza is more suitable to represent public policy issues than Orbán’s Fidesz.
Péter Magyar can win a supermajority
That is a dangerous perception for Orbán and his party because they have won at least three consecutive landslide victories. After all, voters believed they were more capable of governing the country than their adversaries (leftist alliance in 2014, Jobbik in 2018 and the opposition alliance in 2022). According to Policy Solutions, there is a turn in Hungary concerning the Hungarian government’s evaluation.
Hungarians regard Péter Magyar as a more suitable leader than PM Orbán. Furthermore, more than 50% of the population think that the Orbán cabinet affects Hungary’s development negatively, while only 39% categorise it as a positive era. Moreover, the Hungarian population regards Magyar’s Tisza Party as more competent in most public policy issues (14 out of 18) than Orbán’s Fidesz.
Hungarian voters believe the new government should preserve the family allowances, halt illegal migration and remain neutral in the Ukraine war. Magyar never spoke against those beliefs.
According to Policy Solutions, a great majority of Hungarians detected a downturn in healthcare (67%), social inequalities (63%), corruption (60%), education (59%), Hungary’s international reputation (58%), the state of the economy (57%), life standards (57%), etc. Finally, more Hungarians think the Orbán government can be democratically unseated in 2026 than those who do not.
You may download the full document from HERE.
Magyar may win a supermajority
It seems that masses of Hungarian voters have started to turn to Péter Magyar, a trend Péter Tölgyessy talked about in the studio of Partizán, a Hungarian independent news outlet. Tölgyessy said that Hungarian society regularly swayed before the elections, like in 1990, 1994, or 2010. He believes that the danger of losing a general election is now higher for Orbán than ever in the last 15 years.
And since the Hungarian voting system favours the winners greatly, it might happen that Magyar will win a supermajority in 2026 and have the power to deconstruct Orbán’s system with quick and effective legislation (one must not forget that Magyar is also a jurist).
Hungarian star political scientist Gábor Török: Orbán should consider stepping down
Gábor Török, a Hungarian star political scientist, wrote in a Facebook post that now is the time for PM Orbán to consider whether he should step down and allow somebody else to lead Fidesz in 2026. The reason is that it would allow power transition in case of victory (which is becoming more important considering the prime minister’s age, although Török acknowledges that Orbán possesses full political and intellectual capacities). In the case of a lost election, Orbán could blame it on his substitute.
Magyar’s Tisza leads the polls unquestionably
Based on the latest representative poll conducted by Publicus Institute, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party is ahead of PM Orbán’s Fidesz party and only the Democratic Coalition and the Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) party could win parliament mandates if elections were held next Sunday. According to the poll results, the Tisza Party leads with 7% ahead of the Fidesz (43% and 36%).
On a national level and with equal voter distribution, that can result in a supermajority for Tisza since the Hungarian electoral system is single-round and includes winner compensation. They found 9% for the Democratic Coalition and 5% for Mi Hazánk. The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party would get 3%, while the Socialists would get 1% of the votes, HVG wrote.
Read also:
- PM Orbán sets up his new campaign team, the ‘Fighters’ Club, saying Ukraine’s EU membership is the greatest danger – read more HERE
- Ukrainian spy scandal in Hungary: Péter Magyar says that the detained “spy”, Holló, was in PM Orbán’s inner circles – details HERE
In an election where Hungarians are starving for change what is most likely to happen is that the public will realize that if they want Fidesz out are wasting their votes if the cast them for any other party except Tisza. You will very likely see a concentration of opposition support towards Tisza candidates. It is simple logic that vote splitting is counter-productive. The odds of Orban stepping down are extremely low. The first reason is narcissistic inflation of ego which comes with being in power for too long. History is full of narcissitic leaders who refuse to leave thinking that they can turn things around. Orban IS Fidesz. He is the head of the snake. You cut it off and there will be no real replacement. Also, for him to resign is a huge admission of failure and you don’t reward failure by reelecting the same gang of bandits.
If you vote conservative you wont got wrong. Stay away from moderate, liberal, woke, communist and socialist. Thes are great ways of destroying your country.
There are increasingly few conservative parties to vote for. Aggressive ‘neo cons’ have hijacked the name and purged their ranks of the centre right, often doing much electoral damage. I spent most of life living under conservative governments in the UK, real conservatism has much to commend it. What is labelled as conservative these days is not, it’s mostly facsism seeking to adopt a more socially acceptable label. Reagan and Thatcher were real conservatives, true patriots and I have every respect for them.
Well said. Fascism always ends badly but some people never learn. Hungarians are quite susceptible to it. They do not have enough experience with democracy to understand how government and the judicial system need to operate to be a real democracy. Hungary has become a “pretend democracy” under Fidesz.
A vote for Magyar is a vote for Ursula, Soros, Schwab, Zelensky…
You think you’re getting transparency, probity, great public services, and higher wages.
What you’re actually getting are tens of thousands of violent third-world parasites on our streets, gas and electric bills going up at least 5-10 times, Net Zero B.S. slinging us back into the 17th century, and our money going to Ukraine instead of our schools and hospitals.
Everything the Left touches turns to s… Always. Everywhere. Not a single exception. But hey, sometimes people need to (re)learn the hard way.
Actually under Fidesz Hungary itself has become a parasite attached to the EU. What has Fidesz turned Hungary into? Worse education, worse health care, worse train service, more poverty, anemic economic growth, wholesale theft of public money by Fidesz bandits. Why should anyone believe that the Tisza opposition could be worse? No matter what country you are in 99 times out of 100 the longer a government or leader stays in power the worse and more corrupt it gets and Fidesz has been in far too long. The US constitution put in a two term limit on presidents for this reason. Wake up Steiner.
The daily update on the EU candidate winning. Interesting we never hear whats going on in other euro countries. Your saying the opposition opposes EU rules on Imigration. Orban alone has stood out against the insanity that is destroying other countries. – the main reason the EU is set on getting rid of Orban. HU is already one of the safest places to live-
Orban alone in EU spent the last 4 years to end the killing in Ukraine. Now that the UK has working to re-enter the EU- your children can now head off to the big money in UK
This publication is “Daily News HUNGARY”. That would be why they don’t tell you “what’s going on in other euro countries”. I would think that any young Hungarian would prefer the “big money” in the UK over puny Fidesz slave wages from the companies of the oligarchs. Only fools willingly submit themselves to serve the bandits who are robbing them.
You’re all forgetting that post-war left of centre social democrats turned Europe into a beacon of prosperity, peace and high living standards. The formula worked extremely well for 50 years and right of centre parties were also fully subscribed to things like strong employment rights, a properly funded welfare state and public healthcare system while keeping a lid on the propensity of the centre left to bloat the state sector leading to excessive taxes. Politics was civil and inclined towards compromise while seeking the optimum solution to a given problem. By and large, countries that haven’t turned their back on social democracy remain wealthy and happy. Austria, Denmark, Finland and the Netherlands to name only a few.
The key to success is a free-market economy with open trade no over-regulation. There is a lot of dissatisfaction around the world with governments in office and it doesn’t matter that much where they are on the ideological spectrum. The biggest problem causing stagnating standards of living and higher government debt is demographic and people keep forgetting that. We had so many working age people post-war and it produced booming economies and governments were flush with cash from income taxes. Where I live in Canada in the 80s there were nine people working for every retired person. The ratio is now three to one. Hungary has that problem but on top of it it is estimated that 20% of the country’s GDP is funneled through the government into the hands of the oligarchs without much productive purpose. The purpose is to tranfer public funds corruptly into private hands. Any true economic activity that takes place through this transfer is secondary in purpose and that puts a huge drag on Hungary’s economy.