All the analyses point to a huge defeat for PM Orbán in the 2026 elections: Péter Magyar can win supermajority
Péter Tölgyessy, a Hungarian jurist and political scientist, regularly says that the Hungarian electoral system favours the winner greatly. As a result, one can win the electoral districts with only 35-40%, and even gain a supermajority. According to the findings of new research conducted by Policy Solutions and Závec Research, it may happen that the Hungarian voters will turn to the Tisza Party in the 2026 general elections and give a supermajority to Péter Magyar, the ex-husband of former Justice Minister Judit Varga. Based on Policy Solutions, the Hungarian voters’ majority believe the Tisza is more suitable to represent public policy issues than Orbán’s Fidesz.
Péter Magyar can win a supermajority
That is a dangerous perception for Orbán and his party because they have won at least three consecutive landslide victories. After all, voters believed they were more capable of governing the country than their adversaries (leftist alliance in 2014, Jobbik in 2018 and the opposition alliance in 2022). According to Policy Solutions, there is a turn in Hungary concerning the Hungarian government’s evaluation.
Hungarians regard Péter Magyar as a more suitable leader than PM Orbán. Furthermore, more than 50% of the population think that the Orbán cabinet affects Hungary’s development negatively, while only 39% categorise it as a positive era. Moreover, the Hungarian population regards Magyar’s Tisza Party as more competent in most public policy issues (14 out of 18) than Orbán’s Fidesz.
Hungarian voters believe the new government should preserve the family allowances, halt illegal migration and remain neutral in the Ukraine war. Magyar never spoke against those beliefs.
According to Policy Solutions, a great majority of Hungarians detected a downturn in healthcare (67%), social inequalities (63%), corruption (60%), education (59%), Hungary’s international reputation (58%), the state of the economy (57%), life standards (57%), etc. Finally, more Hungarians think the Orbán government can be democratically unseated in 2026 than those who do not.
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Magyar may win a supermajority
It seems that masses of Hungarian voters have started to turn to Péter Magyar, a trend Péter Tölgyessy talked about in the studio of Partizán, a Hungarian independent news outlet. Tölgyessy said that Hungarian society regularly swayed before the elections, like in 1990, 1994, or 2010. He believes that the danger of losing a general election is now higher for Orbán than ever in the last 15 years.
And since the Hungarian voting system favours the winners greatly, it might happen that Magyar will win a supermajority in 2026 and have the power to deconstruct Orbán’s system with quick and effective legislation (one must not forget that Magyar is also a jurist).
Hungarian star political scientist Gábor Török: Orbán should consider stepping down
Gábor Török, a Hungarian star political scientist, wrote in a Facebook post that now is the time for PM Orbán to consider whether he should step down and allow somebody else to lead Fidesz in 2026. The reason is that it would allow power transition in case of victory (which is becoming more important considering the prime minister’s age, although Török acknowledges that Orbán possesses full political and intellectual capacities). In the case of a lost election, Orbán could blame it on his substitute.
Magyar’s Tisza leads the polls unquestionably
Based on the latest representative poll conducted by Publicus Institute, Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party is ahead of PM Orbán’s Fidesz party and only the Democratic Coalition and the Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) party could win parliament mandates if elections were held next Sunday. According to the poll results, the Tisza Party leads with 7% ahead of the Fidesz (43% and 36%).
On a national level and with equal voter distribution, that can result in a supermajority for Tisza since the Hungarian electoral system is single-round and includes winner compensation. They found 9% for the Democratic Coalition and 5% for Mi Hazánk. The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party would get 3%, while the Socialists would get 1% of the votes, HVG wrote.
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