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Latest poll shows Péter Magyar could have 900,000 more voters – what this means for Orbán
The 21 Research Centre polled a representative sample of 1,500 people by telephone between 23 and 28 March, uncovering a staggering advantage for Tisza. Medián had detected something similar previously, though the results were met with scepticism by some. Could Péter Magyar’s camp be on the cusp of a near two-thirds victory?
Does Péter Magyar have 900,000 more voters than Orbán?
According to Telex, the gap between Tisza and Fidesz has widened further in favour of the former. Their latest survey shows Magyar’s party leading by 16 points among those able to choose a party, and by 19 points among firm party-choosing voters. With less than two weeks until the election, these figures among committed voters matter more than those from the general population (40-28).
On this basis, Magyar boasts 900,000 more supporters than Viktor Orbán, a result that would have seemed inconceivable even a few months ago. The 21 Research Centre’s seat calculator suggests such an outcome could deliver Tisza a two-thirds majority: 134 seats for Magyar’s alliance, 60 for Fidesz, 5 for Mi Hazánk, and a compensatory ethnic minority seat for the Roma national self-government representative. The Democratic Coalition and the Hungarian Two-tailed Dog Party, meanwhile, stand at a mere 1% each in the latest poll, with no chance of parliamentary entry.
Medián measured much the same: mere coincidence?
The institute notes that Fidesz support has not declined; rather, Tisza’s has surged, as Magyar’s team has successfully wooed the undecided in recent months. This trend is clear in Telex’s published graph: Tisza climbs steadily, Fidesz stagnates, while the DK and MKKP have flatlined in the polls.
Medián’s survey, released last week, found a 16-point Tisza lead in the full population, 20 points among those able to select a party, and 23 points among committed voters.
Gábor Török, one of Hungary’s most respected and precise political analysts, argues that two institutes which nailed the last election’s results cannot both be so wrong.
If true, Viktor Orbán has mere weeks left in office. After 16 years, Fidesz would fall to Tisza, which would furnish Hungary’s next prime minister.
Read more on the 2026 elections with us:
- Reuters: Trump fears backing potential loser Orbán; Fidesz eyes coalition with Huxit-supporting Mi Hazánk
- Hungarian Foreign Minister Szijjártó aided Putin and his oligarchs: leaked recording emerges – video
Hajra Tisza! There are not enough people in rural villages for Fidesz to intimidate into voting for them. Freedom from the kleptocratic Russian mafia nightmare is coming! A return to democracy and prosperity is coming!
Even over here – thousands of miles away in Dixie, I can feel the Fidesz flatlining.
This has nothing to do with The dominant Leftwing Hungarian Press, online, but, rather, a kind of inner perception of what is going on in Hungary.
If it is enough to throw them out of a governing coalition, I do not know, but, if the election were held today I feel that Fidesz would be behind Tisza, by at least several points.
11 days to go, however, and we will see if the Tisza momentum holds.
You will be very sad, I feel very sorry for you. But you can fight as you wish. You don’t know Hungarians. The louder the voice, the less power it has!! Do you know this Hungarian quote?
Gentlemen the reality on the ground here is alot different than the spinning top of a Hungarian maidan potential coup with the fake polls doing the DNH rounds, Soros et al are waiting to feed!!!.The Tizsla bullies have been threatening our gypsie Roma families that their children will be taken into ‘care’ if they vote the wrong way in some rural parts, how low can they go!!
Are you saying, dear Kalman, that where you are, in Hungary, the momentum is not for Tisza?
I would love any kind of a ground report you care to give, along with some sort of identifier what region of Hungary you are in, and whether your perceptions are more rural or small city?
Hi Mouton, We live in Zala County, South-Western Hungary, we live rurally but commute to a small city on a daily basis, for work,school etc. We also have family in Budapest and Balatonfüred and friends around the country so we a good persepective on what is going on generally in the run up the April 12. The Tiszla mob are pushing very hard both urban and especially rurally now where they most defintetly with get the least votes, the reasons for as are follows, Fidesz have kept rural Hungary alive, they have provided local free buses for elderly and kids to move around from small villages, kept ATM’s and post offices opened for trade and commerce to thrive and give generous grants to open a small business and employ locals, grants to move to a rural village and renovate an old settlement, generous grants for home improvements, energy upgrades (EU directives). Across the country they have removed taxes from earnings from families with two or more children (T&C’s do apply!) they maintain good roads (mostly), they fund alot of cultural events and perserve and maintain the traditional way of life. (probably its the tax-free status of the local Pálinka industry that maintains the status quo in rural hungary as Fidesz see it as our cultural heritage and would not bend to the EU side on this…. Joke 🙂 ) Fidesz have done a very good job. In other EU countires (I lived and seen this) the drive is away from Rural life and the push is to move the populations into larger towns and cities thereby destroy the rural and cultural way of life and limit eventually peoples civil liberties. There are alot of opportunites to upskill and retrain 100% free in Hungary, The Orban government provides 100% free third-level education to everyone up too their 1st Degree or free MSc to get qualified and jump into the public sector as a teacher for example. The Second level education has lots of options and routes for academic or other trade skills training, Also there is a very healthy and vibrant Waldorf education system here. Medical care is free here for those that work and contribute (pay taxes). People know here that if Tiszla got in that they would rip up all the good has been done/given in the last 16 years, they would appease the facist in Brussels to get the withheld Billions, it would be very short term gain and most likely irreversable the damage that would be caused to Hungary in the long term. Hungary is not yet fiscally ready for the EURO adoption, while it would offer some kind of parity with trade, we would loose our financial Sovereignty ‘per se’ and we all know know where the rulers of the EU wish to send our hard earned and taxed cash. Hungary is not the perfect society, it has come a hell of a long way post communism, has along way to go I feel, Some things do need to change but at this point in time its not the Goverment!! the risks are too great. There is so much ‘spin’ in certain media outlets here that the election is a given but its fake-news. We attended a local Fidesz rally last week, it was a full house and this is what we are seeing and hearing around the country. The good people that turn up to these rallies all from all walks of Hungarian life, both rich and poor, both brown and white, Both young and old and conduct themselves with respect and dignity unlike the other side where certain elements are just out to stir-it-up. Its a bit of a rant Mouton but I hope you get some picture of Rural life In Hungary.
With great joy I receive your ‘rant’, Dear Kalman.
Thank you so very much for replying to me so well in my language, and for the copiousness of the reply!
I’ll divide my reactions to it in parts that, follow.
‘Fidesz have kept rural Hungary alive, they have provided local free buses for elderly and kids to move around from small villages, kept ATM’s and post offices opened for trade and commerce to thrive and give generous grants to open a small business and employ locals, grants to move to a rural village and renovate an old settlement, generous grants for home improvements, energy upgrades (EU directives).’
Fascinating, Dear Kalman, and something the Budapest Lefties would not like the world to know, for sure.
Of course, it makes sense that Fidesz would support their best constituency, BUT … you know, in the disUnited States, our equivalent of Fidesz, The Republican Party, is not that smart nor that loyal.
In fact, our Republican Party does not respect us, even though we elect them. No, they do very little to compensate us for our vote, and, in fact, behind closed doors, we hear that they do not think much of us.
Many of them, by the way, are gay, something which is extremely odd to have as a leadership of a ‘Conservative Party’.
‘Fidesz have done a very good job. In other EU countries (I lived and seen this) the drive is away from Rural life and the push is to move the populations into larger towns and cities thereby destroy the rural and cultural way of life and limit eventually peoples civil liberties.’
Another excellent comment, Dear Kalman.
When I think of what you say, here, France and die Nederlande come immediately to mind.
Yes, The Western Elite are working from many different angles to wipe White People off the face of the map, and, what they cannot do that to, leaves us as powerless slaves.
I have long believed that this situation will not be solved by voting.
A big reason why I decided to study Hungarian, 6 years ago, was precisely because I think your country is one of the last sane White countries left.
The wife and I, sad to say, no longer feel at home in our country, for too many reasons to list here, so I drew up a sort list of acceptable places to spend our last years in, and, it seemed to me, after several years study, that Hungary was best, because smalltown and Redneck Hungarians are incredibly similar to White Southerners, as we used to be, 70 years ago.
‘Hungary is not yet fiscally ready for the EURO adoption, while it would offer some kind of parity with trade, we would loose our financial Sovereignty ‘per se’ and we all know know where the rulers of the EU wish to send our hard earned and taxed cash.’
I hope you are never ‘ready’ to give up your Forint for the EURO, because, if you do, you will have no way to resist, and, just as The Western Elite has obliterated my people – they will do it to yours.
‘Some things do need to change but at this point in time its not the Goverment!! the risks are too great.’
I totally agree.
As I have said many times before – Magyar Péter is a terrible option for Hungary.
Personally I prefer Toroczkai László and Mi Hazánk, but, if I were Hungarian I might vote for Orbán just to keep Magyar, and, therefore, Bruxelles out.
Both young and old and conduct themselves with respect and dignity unlike the other side where certain elements are just out to stir-it-up.á
Well, the Modern Left is eaten up and riddled with drug users, sexual degenerates, and depressives, so I am not surprised to hear this.
‘Medical care is free here for those that work and contribute (pay taxes).’
I am utterly shocked to hear this.
If you knew how our system rapes us, medically, you would be very proud of your own country.
When people get sick in my country, they often wind up losing their house, because it is the only way they can pay their medical bills!
Ugh!!!!
‘People know here that if Tiszla got in that they would rip up all the good has been done/given in the last 16 years, they would appease the facist in Brussels to get the withheld Billions, it would be very short term gain and most likely irreversable the damage that would be caused to Hungary in the long term.
Yes, Dear Kalman, your people are right – if you get Tisza, you will get milked and raped until you are dry, and cramped, because that is what The Western Elite do to everybody.
Our country was very strong when my wife and I were children. Now it is beyond bankrupt and largely unlivable.
it is very very sad.
Again thank you for your wonderful and generous reply.
Always feel free to advise me, on Hungarian matters, or critic my comments, when you think I am misinformed.
God bless you nd your family!