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PM Orbán sweats as polls tighten – but Péter Magyar can’t relax either
Fresh polling spells trouble for Viktor Orbán, though challenger Péter Magyar isn’t out of the woods. Both Orbán’s Fidesz machine and Magyar’s Tisza Party have nudged up their support within the margin of error since last month. Full details drop on Monday, but the institute’s chief has already spilled some juicy prelim numbers.
Is PM Viktor Orbán in deep trouble?
On an ATV show covered by 24.hu, pollster Tibor Závecz revealed their latest representative survey still shows a hefty Tisza lead. That’s at least 400,000 votes ahead of Fidesz: a gap the government’s rural-skewed electoral system, decried by many as rigged, won’t easily paper over.
While pro-government pollsters routinely pump up Fidesz leads, independents have clocked Tisza out front since November 2024. The scissors have narrowed from their peak, yet despite the regime’s wild, economically unjustified handouts—extra pensions, gun money, tax breaks—Fidesz can’t claw back meaningful ground at Tisza’s expense.
Tisza boasts 400,000 more backers
Závecz told ATV their January poll puts Tisza at 36% and Fidesz at 31% among the full population—up from December’s 35-30 split, with both gaining a point. That translates to Tisza holding a 400,000-vote edge overall: enough to thwart another supermajority, but maybe not to topple the government.
First, Závecz confirmed, that his job is astroturfing. What else needs to be said?
Second, in Hungary what matters is not the number of voters, but the individual, local MP elections. And at least 45% of the whole Parliament has 0% to go to Tisza (individual rural seats).
And Bajnai fears the apocalypse on an Orbán win? Good. If your enemies talk of Apocalypse desperately, that’s a good sign.
And btw proves that the astroturfing doesn’t work with a stubborn and defiant population, like the Hungarians.
Márk has already explained this – Magyar’s strong support in Budapest is not going to get him elected.
As to Orbán sweating :I do not know why …. unless he thinks too many rural voters are planning on voting for Mi Hazánk.
As I have already said : unless Magyar starts making a serious play for Rural and Smalltown voters, this election is over before the polls open.
As to any Zavecz polls, they are exactly as Toroczkai László and Duró Dora have described them : they are formed to shape opinion, not investigate and report it.