PM Orbán sweats as polls tighten – but Péter Magyar can’t relax either

Fresh polling spells trouble for Viktor Orbán, though challenger Péter Magyar isn’t out of the woods. Both Orbán’s Fidesz machine and Magyar’s Tisza Party have nudged up their support within the margin of error since last month. Full details drop on Monday, but the institute’s chief has already spilled some juicy prelim numbers.

Is PM Viktor Orbán in deep trouble?

On an ATV show covered by 24.hu, pollster Tibor Závecz revealed their latest representative survey still shows a hefty Tisza lead. That’s at least 400,000 votes ahead of Fidesz: a gap the government’s rural-skewed electoral system, decried by many as rigged, won’t easily paper over.

While pro-government pollsters routinely pump up Fidesz leads, independents have clocked Tisza out front since November 2024. The scissors have narrowed from their peak, yet despite the regime’s wild, economically unjustified handouts—extra pensions, gun money, tax breaks—Fidesz can’t claw back meaningful ground at Tisza’s expense.

Tisza boasts 400,000 more backers

Závecz told ATV their January poll puts Tisza at 36% and Fidesz at 31% among the full population—up from December’s 35-30 split, with both gaining a point. That translates to Tisza holding a 400,000-vote edge overall: enough to thwart another supermajority, but maybe not to topple the government.

Hungary’s electoral setup gives rural votes extra heft, as urban districts pack in more punters. Every poll agrees Fidesz dominates the countryside, especially tiny villages and poorer folk—so the system tilts Orbán’s way.

Tisza leads on every metric

Tisza’s war chest sits at 2.9 million supporters against Fidesz’s 2.5 million, though Závecz skipped smaller parties that could tip a knife-edge result.

Median clocked 40-33 for Tisza in January (full population), IDEA 35-27—both to Magyar. Among decided voters, Tisza’s edge balloons across all three polls, but experts say it’s the broader public’s mood that counts this far out.

The real betting money on Hungary’s poll

More telling than polls? Where punters put their cash. A day after our piece, the goverment blocked Polymarket access from Hungary—but a week ago, the 2026 election odds made for riveting reading.

Meanwhile, ex-PM Gordon Bajnai sounded the apocalypse alarm on an Orbán win. Bajnai lost against Orbán in 2010 as crisis-coping caretaker premier backed by the Socialists, then flopped as left-wing leader pre-2014. But his Együtt 2014 outfit withered to nothing in 2018.