IDEA poll: four-party parliament possible as Tisza widens lead over Fidesz

A fresh IDEA poll suggests Hungary could be heading for a four-party parliament, not a two-party contest, as the opposition Tisza Party increases its advantage over the ruling Fidesz–KDNP alliance at the start of the official campaign period.

According to IDEA Intézet’s latest survey, Tisza leads Fidesz–KDNP by 12 percentage points among “certain voters who can name a party” (49% vs 37%). In the full adult population, the lead is 9 points (38% vs 29%).

Tisza extends its lead in the latest IDEA poll

According to 24.hu, IDEA says Tisza’s advantage has grown compared with its previous measurement about a month earlier. Among committed, party-choosing voters, Tisza is up by 2 points, while in the full population Tisza rose by 2 points and Fidesz–KDNP by 1 point.

Based on these figures, the institute estimates that in early March Tisza had roughly 700,000 more supporters than Fidesz–KDNP.

Four-party parliament scenario: Mi Hazánk and DK around the threshold

Crucially, IDEA argues that if an election had been held in early March, the results (using the “certain voters who can name a party” group) would likely have produced a four-party parliament:

• Tisza and Fidesz–KDNP as the two dominant forces, plus
• Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) on 6%, and
• Democratic Coalition (DK) on 5%, just at the parliamentary threshold.

However, IDEA’s numbers also underline how fine the margins are for smaller parties. In the full population, Mi Hazánk is still measured at 5%, while DK slips to 4%, below the threshold.

The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) is measured at 2% in both groups.

What this means for international readers

Hungary’s electoral system combines single-member constituencies and party lists, but party-list entry to parliament depends on clearing a 5% national threshold for most parties—making the DK and Mi Hazánk figures particularly significant if they hold.

The Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar, has rapidly become the main challenger to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz-led alliance. Hungary is expected to hold its parliamentary election on 12 April 2026, making polling movement in March especially politically sensitive.

If you missed it: Hulk urges Hungarians to vote a certain way in April

Methodology: when and how the poll was conducted

IDEA collected data between 28 February and 6 March 2026 using an online self-completion questionnaire (CAWI). The sample size was 1,500, weighted to be representative of Hungary’s adult population by factors including education, age, gender, settlement type and region. IDEA reports a margin of error of up to ±2.3 percentage points for baseline distributions.

A fragmented parliament is back on the table

While headline attention naturally focuses on the widening gap between Tisza and Fidesz–KDNP, IDEA’s most consequential implication may be the return of genuine multi-party parliamentary arithmetic: if both Mi Hazánk and DK remain at or above the threshold among those most likely to vote, Hungary’s next parliament could include four parties with parliamentary groups—reshaping coalition dynamics, legislative bargaining, and campaign strategies in the final stretch.

Want to understand Hungary beyond the headlines?

Subscribe to the Hungary Weekly Brief and receive the week’s most important developments in your inbox.