IDEA poll: four-party parliament possible as Tisza widens lead over Fidesz

A fresh IDEA poll suggests Hungary could be heading for a four-party parliament, not a two-party contest, as the opposition Tisza Party increases its advantage over the ruling Fidesz–KDNP alliance at the start of the official campaign period.

According to IDEA Intézet’s latest survey, Tisza leads Fidesz–KDNP by 12 percentage points among “certain voters who can name a party” (49% vs 37%). In the full adult population, the lead is 9 points (38% vs 29%).

Tisza extends its lead in the latest IDEA poll

According to 24.hu, IDEA says Tisza’s advantage has grown compared with its previous measurement about a month earlier. Among committed, party-choosing voters, Tisza is up by 2 points, while in the full population Tisza rose by 2 points and Fidesz–KDNP by 1 point.

Based on these figures, the institute estimates that in early March Tisza had roughly 700,000 more supporters than Fidesz–KDNP.

Four-party parliament scenario: Mi Hazánk and DK around the threshold

Crucially, IDEA argues that if an election had been held in early March, the results (using the “certain voters who can name a party” group) would likely have produced a four-party parliament:

• Tisza and Fidesz–KDNP as the two dominant forces, plus
• Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) on 6%, and
• Democratic Coalition (DK) on 5%, just at the parliamentary threshold.

However, IDEA’s numbers also underline how fine the margins are for smaller parties. In the full population, Mi Hazánk is still measured at 5%, while DK slips to 4%, below the threshold.

The Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) is measured at 2% in both groups.

What this means for international readers