Eldor Aripov: Address of the President of Uzbekistan – strategic vector of the country’s future development

The Director of the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies under the President of Uzbekistan (ISRS) Eldor Aripov, commented to Dunyo IA on President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Address to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan:

– The Address of President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to the Oliy Majlis and the people of Uzbekistan goes far beyond the scope of a routine annual political speech in its significance. It constitutes a strategic policy document that marks the country’s transition to a qualitatively new stage of development — the institutional consolidation of reforms and the formation of a sustainable growth model oriented toward the long term.

Over the past decade, Uzbekistan’s economy has undergone an accelerated process of qualitative and systemic transformation. While in the mid-2010s the country’s nominal gross domestic product stood at approximately USD 60–65 billion, it has now reached USD 145 billion, as noted in the President’s Address. In practical terms, this represents more than a twofold expansion of the nation’s economic scale over an unprecedentedly short historical period.

In recent years, average annual economic growth has consistently remained at around six percent. This reflects not only the preservation of positive momentum, but also the economy’s capacity for sustained growth amid external shocks — including the pandemic, disruptions to raw material supplies and logistics chains, and global inflationary pressures.

Sectoral indicators corroborate this assessment. Over the past decade, industrial output has more than doubled, whereas in the early 2010s industry played a largely auxiliary role relative to the commodity-based and agricultural sectors. Today, mechanical engineering, the electrical equipment industry, and the chemical sector make a stable contribution to the economy, while the share of processing and manufacturing activities in the GDP structure has already exceeded 80 percent.

The dynamics of the agricultural sector are equally indicative. Whereas ten years ago production volumes remained the primary benchmark, today — as emphasized in the President’s Address — the priority has shifted toward processing and the export of finished products. The expansion of fruit and vegetable processing and the growth of food exports are shaping a more resilient development model, reducing the economy’s dependence on fluctuations in harvest yields and prices.

Investment dynamics also reflect qualitative change. In recent years, investment in fixed capital has been growing at a rapid pace and has reached levels well above historical averages, whereas in the early 2010s this indicator was significantly lower. At the same time, the composition of investment has shifted: while previously it was concentrated primarily in infrastructure and state-led projects, a substantial share is now being directed toward industry, energy, transport, and digital solutions. As a result, investment is beginning to support not only current growth, but also the formation of the country’s future productive base.

External trade dynamics further reinforce this picture. Over the past decade, Uzbekistan’s export revenues have more than doubled: whereas in the mid-2010s exports of goods and services stood at approximately USD 12–13 billion, in recent years they have consistently exceeded USD 24–25 billion. Crucially, this growth has been driven not only by favorable price conditions, but also by changes in the structure of export supplies.

This transformation is most clearly visible in the manufacturing and processing industries. Over the past decade, exports of textile products have increased more than threefold — from less than $1 billion to around $3 billion and above — reflecting a shift from raw-material exports to finished goods. A similar trajectory can be observed in the electrical engineering, chemical, and food industries, where export volumes have risen several times over as a result of expanded production chains and access to new markets. 

Macroeconomic balance warrants particular attention. Economic and investment growth has been accompanied by the maintenance of a controlled level of public debt and overall financial stability. This is especially significant, as recent experience shows that rapid growth without adequate balance often leads to the accumulation of constraints on future development. The Address underscores that Uzbekistan has deliberately chosen a more cautious, yet strategically advantageous, development trajectory.

A comparison of developments over the past decade leads to a key strategic conclusion: the republic has reached a stage at which further progress is determined less by the sheer size of the economy than by its quality. This is why the President’s Address places central emphasis on boosting labor productivity, advancing technological modernization, and deepening industrialization. The achievements to date are viewed as the foundation upon which the economy of the coming decade is to be built.