Could Budapest flights be at risk? Ryanair warns of summer cancellations and cites Hungary as a good example

Summer travel plans across Europe could soon face major disruption, with Ryanair warning that ongoing tensions in the Middle East may trigger jet fuel shortages and force airlines to suspend flights during the peak holiday season.

According to Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary, Europe’s jet fuel supply could begin to come under pressure from June if the conflict involving Iran continues throughout April. The warning comes as airlines worldwide grow increasingly concerned over disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil and fuel shipments.

Jet fuel and diesel shortages could hit Europe first

The most immediate economic fallout from the conflict is expected to affect jet fuel and diesel supplies, with Europe among the most exposed regions.

While oil prices have surged sharply, O’Leary stressed that the bigger threat is physical supply shortages rather than cost alone. Ryanair has already hedged around 80% of its fuel needs at USD 67 per barrel, but the remaining 20% is now costing roughly USD 150 per barrel, more than double the previous levels. Reuters reports that jet fuel prices have risen far faster than crude oil itself since Trump and Israel’s Iran war began.

If the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, the consequences may stretch well beyond aviation, affecting supply chains, fertiliser production, and food prices.

Ryanair says summer route suspensions may become unavoidable

O’Leary said that if 10–20% of Ryanair’s fuel supply becomes uncertain between June and August, the airline may have no choice but to suspend selected routes, despite the importance of the summer season.

He noted that early warning signs are already emerging in Asia, where some airports have reportedly stopped accepting additional aircraft because of fuel shortages. Lufthansa chief Carsten Spohr has also signalled that Asian markets are likely to feel the impact first.

Several airlines have already begun adjusting operations. SAS and Vietnam Airlines have temporarily suspended flights, while United Airlines is reportedly grounding less profitable routes as carriers prioritise fuel efficiency and network resilience.

Will Budapest flights be affected?

For now, O’Leary has not indicated whether Budapest routes could also face disruption, saying the deciding factor will be which airports can still guarantee sufficient fuel supply.

This leaves uncertainty for travellers flying to and from Hungary during the summer holiday period, especially if the geopolitical situation fails to improve in the coming weeks.

Hungary-based Wizz Air has not yet commented on whether it expects any kerosene shortages or potential route cancellations.

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Ticket prices may rise further this spring

Despite the more serious concern over supply, Ryanair still expects ticket prices to rise by 3–4% between April and June, driven by higher fuel costs and industry-wide capacity pressures.

O’Leary also renewed calls for the UK to scrap its GBP 2 extra passenger levy on short-haul flights, arguing that it damages competitiveness at a time when airlines are already facing significant cost pressures.

Interestingly, he pointed to Hungary, Slovakia and Sweden as positive examples, saying that these countries have recently removed similar aviation-related environmental taxes.