Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair has warned travellers that flight ticket prices could rise later this year if aviation fuel costs remain high due to the war in the Middle East.
Although the airline says it currently has “almost zero concerns” about fuel shortages disrupting summer operations in Europe, executives cautioned that holidaymakers who delay booking their flights may end up paying significantly more in the coming months.
Fuel prices surge amid Middle East conflict
Kerosene prices have climbed sharply following instability linked to the war involving the US/Israel and Iran, and wider tensions in the Middle East. Airlines across Europe are facing growing pressure on profitability as fuel remains one of the industry’s largest expenses.
According to Ryanair, the company has protected itself better than many competitors by hedging 80% of its fuel needs through April 2027 at approximately 67 US dollars per barrel.
Despite this protection strategy, Ryanair’s chief financial officer, Neil Sorahan, said fuel costs have still increased by “a few hundred million euros”, The Brussels Times reports.
The airline also warned that overall operating costs are expected to rise further due to higher maintenance expenses, staff costs and increasing environmental taxes across the European Union.
Ryanair says late bookers may face higher fares
Ryanair executives said summer travel demand remains strong, but customers are booking flights later than usual because of economic uncertainty and concerns surrounding the Middle East conflict.
Chief executive Michael O’Leary said the delayed booking trend has temporarily kept fares lower during the early summer period.
However, both O’Leary and Sorahan warned that passengers waiting too long could eventually encounter steeper ticket prices closer to departure dates.
“Closer-in bookings are strong, but if people leave it late, they could take on higher fares,” Sorahan said, according to The Guardian.
The airline currently expects summer fares to remain broadly similar to last year after previously forecasting modest increases.
Ryanair still expects passenger growth
Despite economic uncertainty and rising costs, Ryanair reported another exceptionally strong financial year.
For the financial year ending 31 March, the airline posted profits of EUR 2.26 billion excluding exceptional costs — a 40% increase compared with the previous year.
Revenue rose 11% to EUR 15.54 billion thanks to stronger passenger numbers and higher average ticket prices. Ryanair carried more than 208 million passengers during the financial year, marking a 4% annual increase.
The airline expects passenger numbers to rise again this year to approximately 216 million travellers.
Expansion in low-tax countries, cuts elsewhere
Ryanair also confirmed it plans limited expansion in markets where governments are reducing aviation taxes and supporting airline growth.
The company specifically highlighted:
- Albania
- Italy
- Morocco
- Slovakia
- Sweden
At the same time, Ryanair says it will reduce routes or scale back operations in countries it considers uncompetitive because of high taxes and regulatory costs.
The airline specifically criticised:
- Belgium
- Germany
- Austria
- parts of Spain
Ryanair has repeatedly attacked aviation tax increases in Belgium in recent months and has threatened to cut services at airports including Charleroi and Brussels Zaventem, according to The Brussels Times.
Europe’s fuel supply situation stabilising
While fears had initially emerged about possible fuel supply disruptions linked to shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, Ryanair now says Europe’s fuel situation appears stable.
O’Leary stated that alternative fuel supplies from West Africa, Norway and the Americas have significantly reduced the risk of shortages this summer.
However, he warned that if the conflict involving Iran continues for an extended period, airlines with weaker fuel hedging strategies could face serious financial trouble during the winter season.
“If it does continue over those 12 months, there will be airline casualties in Europe this winter,” O’Leary warned.
Environmental taxes also becoming a major burden
In addition to fuel concerns, Ryanair says environmental taxation is becoming an increasingly heavy burden for European airlines.
The company estimates its EU environmental taxes could rise by around EUR 300 million this year to approximately EUR 1.4 billion in total.
Ryanair argues these measures risk making European air travel less competitive globally, especially as budget-conscious consumers continue to face inflation and rising living costs.
O’Leary’s future also under discussion
The airline also confirmed it is negotiating a contract extension with Michael O’Leary beyond 2028. Under the proposed deal, the long-serving Ryanair boss could remain chief executive until 2032 if ambitious profit and share-price targets are met.
O’Leary has led the airline since 1994 and remains one of the most influential — and controversial — figures in European aviation.
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