On 12 April, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz suffered a historic defeat. While a degree of voter attrition is only to be expected in such circumstances, the speed at which this once-dominant political force—virtually unchallenged for two decades—appears to be fragmenting has taken many by surprise. The latest polling now classifies Fidesz as a mere mid-tier party, one whose rivals may soon outgrow it. Were an election to be held today, it is no longer clear that Orbán would secure a single constituency victory anywhere in the country.
Orbán’s mounting difficulties
More than a month on from the election, both Fidesz and its long-standing ally, the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP)—which has not contested elections independently since 1998 but has governed alongside Orbán for the past 16 years—still appear to be searching for direction in Parliament. Analysts are largely in agreement: in recent weeks, Fidesz has failed even to project the semblance of renewal. Its parliamentary group remains dominated by veteran figures such as Gergely Gulyás, János Lázár and Eszter Vitályos; neither fresh faces nor broadly appealing personalities have been brought forward to challenge the Tisza Party’s commanding two-thirds majority.
Although Viktor Orbán has not taken up his parliamentary mandate—nor have several other prominent figures within Fidesz—he addressed his supporters on Saturday, signalling a strategic shift. The task ahead, he suggested, is to reclaim the political centre from the fringes, in effect rebuilding the “civic” voter base lost during the campaign. The logic is clear enough: Fidesz is now competing with the radical Mi Hazánk movement for its former supporters. Whether such a strategy can restore the party’s former status as a broad-based people’s party, however, remains doubtful.
Tisza and Fidesz: no longer in the same league
According to the latest poll, published early this morning by Népszava, support for Orbán appears to be evaporating almost entirely, leaving behind only the party’s most hardline adherents. Among decided voters, just 20 per cent would now back Fidesz—compared with 73 per cent who favour candidates of the Tisza Party. On these figures, Fidesz would fail to win a single individual mandate and would be reduced to perhaps 20–25 seats in Parliament, while even a four-fifths supermajority for Tisza would not be inconceivable.
The longer-term question, of course, is whether Péter Magyar and his movement can make effective use of the overwhelming mandate granted by voters, and whether they can meet public expectations—particularly in economic management and the exercise of competent, orderly governance.
No challenger in sight
For now, at least, there appears little immediate threat to Tisza’s dominance. A May survey by Publicus places the party at 55 per cent to Fidesz’s 17 per cent among the general population, and 60 to 18 among committed voters. Fidesz has not polled so poorly since the mid-1990s. According to András Pulai, head of Publicus, some one million voters have deserted the party since its electoral defeat. He attributes Tisza’s surge not merely to the familiar tendency of voters to rally behind a winner, but also to the governing parties’ weak political performance in recent weeks. Notably, 89 per cent of the population say they would turn out to vote if an election were held this Sunday.
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One striking detail is that Mi Hazánk has failed to capitalise on Fidesz’s losses, remaining stuck at around 4 per cent across all categories.
On leadership suitability, Péter Magyar leads Viktor Orbán by 72 to 27, while 69 per cent of Hungarians consider the latter unfit to serve as prime minister.
Other polling institutes report similar trends. Last week, the 21 Research Centre found Tisza ahead of Fidesz by 71 to 21 among decided voters, while Republikon measured a narrower—though still decisive—gap of 66 to 26. The proportion of undecided voters remains low, at around 10–13 per cent, while support for both the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) is statistically negligible.
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