A new nationwide poll by Europion suggests that Hungary’s political landscape continues to change rapidly following the recent parliamentary election, with support for Péter Magyar and the ruling Tisza Party continuing to grow while support for Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz declines sharply.
The survey, conducted on 8–9 May and timed to coincide with the inaugural session of the new parliament, found what researchers described as a strong “winner effect” in Hungarian politics.
Tisza reaches majority support in latest poll
According to the poll, if a repeat election were held this Sunday, 52% of Hungarians would vote for Tisza, representing an 8-percentage-point increase compared with the party’s election result. By contrast, support for Fidesz has reportedly dropped by 5 percentage points.
Support for Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) also rose slightly, with 7% of the total population saying they would vote for the party led by László Toroczkai.
Among decided voters, Tisza’s lead becomes even more pronounced:
- Tisza: 61%
- Fidesz: 27%
- Mi Hazánk: 8%
- Other parties: 4%
Among committed voters, the figures stand at:
- Tisza: 64%
- Fidesz: 27%
- Mi Hazánk: 7%
- Other parties: 3%
Fidesz loses ground across most demographic groups
The survey found that Fidesz no longer leads in any major demographic category. The closest races were recorded among voters over 60 and among people without secondary school qualifications, where Tisza’s advantage was still 12 percentage points.
Using Europion’s multilevel regression and post-stratification (MrP) methodology, researchers also examined narrower demographic combinations.
The poll found that Fidesz continues to perform strongly among older, less-educated voters living in smaller settlements. However, Tisza enjoys overwhelming support among young graduates living in Budapest and larger county-level cities.
In those urban, highly educated groups, researchers estimated that out of ten randomly selected citizens, only one would likely support Fidesz while eight would support Tisza.
Péter Magyar tops popularity rankings
The survey also measured public perceptions of leading politicians and emerging political figures.
Respondents rated politicians on a five-point scale based on how willing they would be to see them in important public roles. Péter Magyar emerged as the clear frontrunner among Hungary’s new political generation: 40% said they would “very much” like to see him in a prominent role, while a further 19% responded positively overall.
Other prominent Tisza politicians, including István Kapitány, Anita Orbán and Márk Radnai, achieved approval levels of around 45%, although researchers noted that lower name recognition may influence the figures.
Zsolt Hegedűs followed with a 37% popularity rating.
Leading Fidesz politicians performed notably worse in the survey:
- Viktor Orbán: 31%
- Péter Szijjártó: 29%
- Gergely Gulyás: 27%
- János Lázár: 24%
Toroczkai also ranked among the least popular major political figures, with a 28% approval score.
If you missed it: Péter Magyar officially Prime Minister – Orbán era ends
Hungarians divided over justice minister nominee controversy
The poll also examined public reactions to the controversy surrounding former justice minister nominee Márton Melléthei-Barna.
Melléthei-Barna withdrew his candidacy on Thursday after concerns emerged regarding family ties to prime minister-elect Péter Magyar. The issue sparked significant political debate in recent days.
Public opinion proved sharply divided:
- 28% said nominating him was a major mistake from the outset
- 35% believed the nomination was a mistake, but said Tisza corrected it appropriately through his resignation
- 25% considered the resignation an overreaction and believed Melléthei-Barna could still have served as a competent justice minister
Even among Tisza supporters, opinion was split. While 46% said the resignation appropriately corrected an error, 42% viewed the withdrawal as an overreaction.
There are high odds that Fidesz will eventually fold as a political party and I would give it five years. What is going to happen now is a judicial reckoning with all of the corruption that took place. Fidesz politicians and their business associates will be prosecuted and some will end up in jail. The mountain of crimes that Fidesz perpetrated will be uncovered. All of the secret deals willl no longer be secret and the public will be given knowledge of what Orban and his cronies did. The party will be so thoroughly discredited that if they actually ran for election in four years time they will be crushed even worse than they were now. The writing will be on the wall that they are finished and probably at latest they will disband in the year after the 2030 election. The far right will unite under a different party that will be created unless they are absorbed into Mi Hazank.