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More Hungarians now believe Orbán could lose as Tisza opens lead 10 days ahead of election
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With just days to go before Hungary’s 12 April parliamentary election, a growing number of voters now believe Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could be heading for defeat, as fresh figures suggest Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has moved into a clear lead.
First time in a year that people believe Orbán could lose
The latest Publicus figures, published by Népszava, show that this is the first time since January 2025 that more respondents expect a change of government than another Fidesz victory. The shift is narrow but symbolically significant: 39% now expect Fidesz to lose, while 38% still believe Orbán’s party will hold on.
Tisza leads in every key voter category
The numbers point to a steady but meaningful advantage for Tisza.
Among the full electorate, Tisza stands on 36%, compared with 30% for Fidesz. Among certain voters, the gap remains six percentage points at 41% to 35%.
The strongest lead appears among decided party voters, where Tisza reaches 49%, versus 40% for Fidesz: a nine-point advantage that reinforces the growing sense of momentum around Péter Magyar’s party.
Smaller parties remain far behind. Mi Hazánk is hovering around the parliamentary threshold at 4–6%, while both the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) remain on 3%, suggesting Hungary may be heading towards a three-party parliament.
Voters increasingly see Tisza as the likely winner
One of the most striking findings is not just current support, but the public perception of who is now more likely to win.
When asked which party they would bet HUF 10,000 on to win the election, 39% chose Tisza, while 35% backed Fidesz.
The perception gap widens further when respondents were asked what they believe people around them expect. 39% said their neighbours and acquaintances expect a Tisza victory, compared with only 28% who said the same about Fidesz.
This matters politically because once voters begin to sense that power may genuinely change hands, it can influence undecided voters, tactical voting, and turnout in the final stretch.
Most voters have already made up their minds
The race is also hardening.
According to the Publicus data, around four in five voters already know exactly how they will vote, a sharp nine-point increase compared with the previous month. Only 7–8% say they will decide in the final days or inside the polling booth itself.
Turnout expectations also remain extremely high. 78% say they are certain to vote, with both major camps highly mobilised: 94% of Tisza supporters and 91% of Fidesz voters say they will definitely cast a ballot.
A growing appetite for political change
Perhaps the clearest sign of shifting sentiment is that 49% of respondents said they would welcome a Fidesz defeat, while only 35% said they would prefer Orbán’s party to remain in power.
That does not automatically translate into votes, but it shows a national mood in which the possibility of an opposition victory is no longer seen as far-fetched.
With independent polls from other institutes also showing Tisza ahead (in some cases by an even wider margin), the final days of Hungary’s election campaign may now be less about whether Orbán can win comfortably and more about whether he can still prevent what would be the biggest upset of his 16-year rule.
If you missed it:
“Hungary’s ruling Fidesz–KDNP alliance would secure 50 per cent of the vote among decided voters if elections were held this Sunday, according to a new poll by the Center for Fundamental Rights. The survey places the governing parties eight points ahead of the opposition Tisza Party.”
You have to look at the horrible state of the Hungarian economy, low standard of living of the majority of Hungarians, the crisis situation in all areas of government services, the widespread acknowledgement of the complete corruption of the Fidesz government, and the effective campaign of Peter Magyar. The only way Fidesz can win in this situation is by huge electoral fraud. People are very unhappy in Hungary and they know that the only way their lives will improve is if there is a change of government.
With Trump’s disaster in Iran getting worse by the day causing an energy crisis for Hungarians JD Vance will now show up just in time to remind Hungarians that Fidesz allied itself with this war-mongering train-wreck of a US government. The chickens are all coming home to roost now.
Good Morning Larry, I read from your tone that you haven’t taking your anti-Hungarian meds yet. while you don’t live in Hungary?, you are still the expert on all matters Hungarian from your desktop PC and your fake news regurgitation. Yes a similar Maidan fraud by fake polls as already stated !!
I’m not anti-Hungarian. I am anti-Fidesz and anti-Russian which go together. I’m more Hungarian than you can possibly know and that I do not care to reveal on a blog-site. The problem people in Hungary have is that they are under immersive media and information control by the Fidesz government. The only way you can really know what is going on is to be outside of that bubble which is a Fidesz-Russian co-production.
An eloquent answer, Larry. I was particularly touched by your statement that you feel particularly Hungarian. There appears to a dramatic shift in what real patriotism means in the last year or two. That people who love their homeland and wish to see it prosper seek regime change. This encapsulates the success of the Tisza movement, in seizing the lanyard of benevolent nationalism from Fidesz. I may be wrong and obviously I’m no fortune teller, but I have an increasing feeling that the upcoming election is going to be looked back upon as the third Hungarian revolution following 1848 and 1956.
Amazing Owen, you claim that you live in Hungary? come on, I am ready to meet you.
Such a bullsiht comment illustrating the idiotness and ignorance you may know about the Hungarian elections! 😂