Revealing survey: What Hungarians truly think about the war in Ukraine

A recent study by Závecz Research, conducted in early October, delved into public perceptions of the war in Ukraine. The survey examined Hungary’s perceived threat level, views on the defence capabilities of the Hungarian armed forces, and support for EU and NATO membership. This representative poll, commissioned by security policy expert Péter Tarjányi, gathered responses from 1,000 individuals via telephone.

War in Ukraine: Aggression or defence?

Index reports that the Závecz Research survey reveals shifting public perceptions in Hungary regarding the war in Ukraine. While a consistent 65% of the population continues to view the conflict as Russian aggression, and 62% hold Russia responsible, there has been a notable shift in views on whether Russia acted defensively. Over the past two years, the proportion of Hungarians who believe Russia initiated the war in Ukraine for defensive reasons has increased from 13% to 22%. Meanwhile, those who blame Ukraine for the conflict have risen from 16% to 26%. Among pro-government Fidesz voters, opinions have shifted dramatically, with 53% now blaming Ukraine, reversing the previous majority that attributed responsibility to Russia. The number of undecided voters has also significantly decreased across the board.

Would Hungarians defend their country?

The survey indicates a slight decline in Hungarians’ willingness to defend their country in the event of an attack. Currently, 46% would be prepared to fight or assist the army, down from 50% two years ago. While only 4% believe it highly likely that the war in Ukraine will spread to Hungary, 41% consider it possible but unlikely. Index notes that concerns about the war in Ukraine spreading to Hungary are more prevalent among Fidesz voters, rural populations, and those with lower levels of education.

Humanitarian aid is the most favoured form of support for Ukraine, with 55% of respondents supporting this option, while only 18% back military aid. Among government party voters, 63% support only humanitarian assistance, and none support military aid.

EU and NATO

The poll shows strong support among Hungarians for remaining in both the European Union and NATO, with 68% favouring continued EU membership and 78% supporting NATO membership. However, opinions are divided along party lines. Among Fidesz-KDNP voters, 46% support remaining in the EU, while 37% favour leaving. Support for NATO is stronger, with only 17% of Fidesz voters favouring an exit. Voters of the opposition Tisza and DK parties tend to be more consistently pro-NATO and pro-EU.

The survey also highlights dissatisfaction with Hungary’s often anti-EU stance on the war in Ukraine, reflected in a moderate public disapproval rating of 2.7 on a five-point scale. Concerns over Hungary’s alignment with Russia and China are growing, with two-thirds of respondents fearing negative consequences from diverging from EU and NATO positions. Despite this, a majority (60%) still prioritise maintaining good relations with the EU over Russia and China.

Hungarians do not see neighbouring countries as a threat

The Závecz Research survey reveals that only 16% of Hungarians believe there is a neighbouring country to fear militarily, with Ukraine being the most feared (11%), followed by Romania (7%). Confidence in Hungary’s defence capabilities remains low, with only 6% believing that the Hungarian armed forces would definitely be able to defend the country, while 34% are convinced they would not. Trust in the military is higher among government supporters. In terms of a potential West-East military confrontation, 12% of respondents consider it very likely within the next decade, while 55% think it is possible but unlikely.

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