Will Orbán stay prime minister until 2030? A new poll yields surprising results

The vast majority of Hungarian voters would vote for the Tisza Party in an upcoming general election held this Sunday, yet far fewer believe there will be a change of government than party preference alone would suggest. Below are the most interesting findings of a new poll.

Solid Tisza lead in exciting new poll

According to data from Publicus shared by Népszava, it remains the case that Péter Magyar, the former justice minister (and now ex-husband of a central figure in the political scandal bearing his name), who for more than a year has topped every non-government-aligned poll in the wake of the mercy scandal, is still not convincing voters that a change of government will take place next April. The figures now released justify less confidence in a future change of government than the headline poll numbers might imply. Nevertheless, for Péter Magyar, the concrete results are reassuring.

• Among the total population, Tisza leads by 33% to 28%, meaning that Viktor Orbán still has hundreds of thousands more votes overall. This is considered by experts to be the single most relevant data point ahead of the election, yet it still demonstrates a notable lead for Tisza.
• Among voters who are certain to vote for a party, the lead is 48% to 40%, indicating that Tisza is very solidly ahead.
• In both segments, both Tisza and Fidesz strengthened compared with November, albeit only marginally and within the margin of error.
• According to Publicus, only Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland) and DK (Democratic Coalition) would reach Parliament; other polls tend to place DK on a smaller share.

Growing support behind PM Orbán

Yet beneath the surface, clouds are gathering around Tisza. Publicus CEO András Pulai notes that the governing party is gradually reclaiming more of its increasingly unsettled voters through a series of welfare and support measures announced and implemented month after month (the fourteenth monthly pension, “gun money”, income tax exemptions, etc.). As previously reported, the consumer confidence index is also rising, which favours the governing parties.

• The surface shows Péter Magyar soaring, but an emerging trend could deliver victory to PM Orbán in 2026

The surface suggests Péter Magyar is soaring, but an emerging trend could deliver victory to Prime Minister Orbán in 2026.

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Budapest versus the countryside

The country is divided on this issue. In Budapest, a majority (51%) is confident that by no later than May they will no longer refer to Orbán as Prime Minister and that the current ruling parties will no longer hold a parliamentary majority. By contrast, 50% of rural residents believe the government will remain in power, with only 25% expecting otherwise.

• Major shake-up planned for Hungary’s local governments if Fidesz wins in 2026

Given that, in the Hungarian electoral system, votes from smaller villages typically carry more weight than those from major cities—particularly Budapest—it is quite possible that in 2026 a substantial victory for Péter Magyar in the capital and larger cities could still be overshadowed by Orbán’s dominance in villages, enabling Fidesz to secure a narrow parliamentary majority. This is why Magyar travels constantly to the countryside, appearing only rarely in Budapest or other large regional towns.

• Click for more articles of ours concerning the 2026 general elections.

Orbán’s strategy is the opposite: in major rural towns, he welcomes supporters from smaller settlements at closed-door events that require prior registration. The key question is which strategy will ultimately lead to victory.

Finally, a survey by Magyar Társadalomkutató found as recently as February this year that 55% of respondents expected Orbán to remain in power, while only 28% expected a Tisza victory.