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Stunning poll lead for Tisza Party: if accurate, it could give unparalleled power to Péter Magyar
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If the latest Median survey is to be believed, Viktor Orbán’s chairmanship of Fidesz itself may be in peril, such is the defeat his party faces at the hands of Péter Magyar’s Tisza movement. Could the institute once hailed as Hungary’s most accurate pollster have erred so spectacularly?
Median detects astonishing Tisza lead
Under Endre Hann’s stewardship, Median has proven the sharpest predictor in recent elections, typically within a 1-2% margin. Its most recent poll, conducted between 17 and 20 March, drew on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents via telephone interviews. The firm insists the survey was stratified by settlement type, gender, age, and education, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.
The figures paint a jaw-dropping picture of Tisza’s dominance. According to the poll, as reported by hvg.hu, the party leads by 16 points across the full population, 20 points among those able to choose a party, and a whopping 23 points among firm voters. An earlier Median survey had shown a 20-point edge in that last category, yet now the gap has reportedly yawned even wider.
Has Hungarian society tilted towards Tisza?
Last summer, political analyst Péter Tölgyessy – a former MP and key figure in the Opposition Round Table that negotiated Hungary’s democratic transition – warned that society might lurch towards Tisza, much as it did in the electoral upheavals of 1990, 1994, and 2010, delivering surprise victories to frontrunners. If Median’s numbers hold, that tilt may already have occurred.
Gábor Török, another analyst, has argued that much of the electorate has made up its mind, with battle lines frozen: neither bloc can grow meaningfully, so victory hinges on mobilisation. Here, Fidesz holds an enormous edge, thanks above all to its stranglehold on local councils.
Many now anticipate Tisza triumph
Median’s findings suggest Tisza could secure a clean two-thirds majority in parliament – or perhaps even four-fifths. The pollster even foresees a two-party legislature, discounting Mi Hazánk’s chances of entry.
Another eyebrow-raising statistic: 89% of those able to vote say they would turn out. Fidesz supporters appear less committed than Tisza’s, a potentially decisive factor. Among the voting-age population, 47% expect Péter Magyar to prevail, against 35% for Orbán Viktor – a marked shift in Tisza’s favour over the past two months, when more foresaw a Fidesz win in January. Meanwhile, 56% of Hungarians want a change of government, with little more than a third backing Orbán’s continuation.
Median also judged Péter Magyar the victor of the 15 March “speech contest”: more heard Orbán, but Magyar earned higher marks.
Mi Hazánk-Fidesz pact?
János Lázár, a member of Orbán’s campaign trio, suggests it is time to ponder a coalition with Mi Hazánk. True, Fidesz is pro-EU while Mi Hazánk would drag Hungary out – yet they share far more, not least their self-proclaimed patriotism. Balázs Orbán, the campaign chief, meanwhile, muses that Fidesz should simply poach Mi Hazánk’s voters.
If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 elections:
- Even the company of Trump’s son “believes” that PM Orbán will lose power in April
- Without an election, PM Orbán already secured a mandate in the next Parliament: here’s the trick
Because of the €90 billion blockage for Ukraine the European Union has frozen the approval of a loan plan for Hungary’s SAFE defense program worth more than 16 billion euros because Budapest is blocking the allocation of 90 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine. This is reported by RMF24, citing a source among European diplomats.
The European Commission officially says that “the assessment is ongoing and the Commission will approve Hungary’s plan when it is ready.” However, the publication’s source says the European Commission does not want to allocate money to Budapest because Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban “violates the principle of loyal cooperation and blocks funding for a country at war with Russia.”
According to RMF FM, the European Commission had planned back in early February to postpone consideration of the Hungarian application until after the parliamentary elections in the country (where the opposition Tisza party has a good chance of winning), but Orban’s position at the EU summit on March 19, where he reiterated his veto on the loan to Ukraine, was “the last straw.”
The list of Brussels’ claims against the Hungarian prime minister is much broader than blocking the loan to Kiev, the publication notes. Among them are opposition to the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, concerns about irregularities in tenders, as well as the lack of fight against corruption in Hungary itself.
Even in December 2025, EU leaders agreed to provide Ukraine with a 90 billion euro loan, but later Budapest blocked the procedural decisions. The main reason, according to Hungarian authorities, was the cessation of Russian oil transit through Ukrainian territory after Russia struck the Druzhba pipeline in late January.
On March 19, Orban said Hungary would not unblock the loan to Ukraine until Kiev resumes deliveries. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó suggested that Ukraine would be forced to concede as it would “run out of money.” On March 25, Orban announced that he would cut off gas supplies to Ukraine until transit through Druzhba resumes, and before that he also threatened that he would block Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Budapest has previously regularly obstructed EU decisions related to aid to Kiev, and Orban himself has repeatedly spread Kremlin narratives.
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Reuters reports foreign ministers from the world’s leading Western democracies meet in France this week against the backdrop of wars in Iran and Ukraine, economic uncertainty, and mounting unease over an increasingly unpredictable U.S. foreign policy.
The two-day gathering brings together ministers from the G7 – Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the U.S. – alongside the European Union.
Allies and adversaries alike have spent the past year scrambling to respond to abrupt U.S. policy shifts, from tariffs to Ukraine, and now the Middle East conflict, which European diplomats and officials say lacks clear objectives or an exit strategy.
“The U.S. attitude is an element of destabilisation of the international system for all players, not only for members of the G7, but also for China, (and) for many, many countries in the world,” said Thomas Gomart, director of the Paris-based French Institute of International Relations.
Underscoring the break from past practice, officials have abandoned efforts to craft an agreed all-encompassing final communique to avoid open tensions.
A top priority for Washington’s partners will be a debriefing from U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who will attend the meeting’s second day on Friday.
Officials said allies are hoping to get greater clarity on the U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran and on whether any meaningful diplomatic channel exists to end the conflict.
Talks will also focus on the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively closed, choking about a fifth of global oil supplies.
Reuters reports the U.S. is making its offer of security guarantees for a peace deal in Ukraine conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country’s eastern region of Donbas to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters in an interview.
With the U.S. focused on its own conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump is applying pressure to Ukraine in an effort to bring a quick end to the four-year war triggered by Russia’s 2022 invasion, Zelenskiy said.
“The Middle East definitely has an impact on President Trump, and I think on his next steps. President Trump, unfortunately, in my opinion, still chooses a strategy of putting more pressure on the Ukrainian side,” he told Reuters.
The U.S., Russia and Ukraine have held three rounds of high-level, trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva this year in a bid to negotiate an end to Europe’s bloodiest conflict since World War Two, which has laid waste to swaths of Ukraine and killed hundreds of thousands of people.
Two vital questions remained unresolved regarding security guarantees, Zelenskiy said: Who would help to fund Ukraine’s weapons purchases to sustain its military deterrent, and how exactly would its allies respond in the face of any future Russian aggression?
“The Americans are prepared to finalise these guarantees at a high level once Ukraine is ready to withdraw from Donbas,” said the 48-year-old leader.
But the pace of Russia’s advance has been slow over the past two years. Military analysts say it could take a long time and a significant amount of manpower to conquer all of Donbas, which includes a so-called Fortress Belt of cities heavily fortified by the Ukrainian military.
Zelenskiy warned that a withdrawal would compromise the security of both Ukraine and, by extension, Europe, by handing the region’s strong defensive positions to Russia.
“I would very much like the American side to understand that the eastern part of our country is part of our security guarantees,” he said.
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Zelenskiy had said in January that a security guarantees document between Ukraine and the U.S. was “100% ready” and waiting to be signed. On Tuesday, following weekend talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Miami, he said there was still work to be done.
Zelenskiy said Russia was betting Washington would lose interest if the peace talks stalled and would walk away. He acknowledged that there was some risk of this.
A fourth round of trilateral talks due this month was postponed due to the Iran conflict.
Zelenskiy questioned, however, whether Russia was willing to sacrifice hundreds of thousands more soldiers in an effort to capture the area of Donbas it does not already control – roughly 6,000 square km. He repeated that a summit with Trump, Putin and himself was the only way to settle outstanding questions on territory and security guarantees to clinch a peace deal.
Meanwhile, Ukraine was making progress in its production of its own long-range missiles and drones, allowing it to strike deep within Russia in retaliation for Russian bombardment of Ukrainian cities, Zelenskiy said.
The US Secretary of State will certainly have a difficult time.
Trump and Orbán are betraying European interests to enrich themselves. There’s a Lenin anecdote that vividly illustrates this situation, although the statement is demonstrably not from Lenin himself. It goes like this: “The capitalists will sell us the rope with which we will hang them.”
TACO Trump!
It could start soon. Information has emerged about possible preparations for a US ground operation in Iran. This was reported by The Wall Street Journal Alex Ward, citing sources.
He said that at least three Republicans in Congress, including the heads of the House and Senate Armed Services Committees, make it clear that such an operation is already planned and could begin soon.
The Jerusalem Post previously reported that the US is considering a scenario in which it would have “no choice” but to launch a ground operation to take control of Kharq Island, a key hub through which about 90% of Iran’s oil exports pass. Such plans were also reported by Axios.
This will likely drive oil and gas prices sharply higher once again, although the price of Brent crude oil in particular has already risen again to around $104, after having previously fallen from around $112 to around $90 following Trump’s claim that negotiations with Iran were progressing well. But what else can you expect from a notorious liar?