If the latest Median survey is to be believed, Viktor Orbán’s chairmanship of Fidesz itself may be in peril, such is the defeat his party faces at the hands of Péter Magyar’s Tisza movement. Could the institute once hailed as Hungary’s most accurate pollster have erred so spectacularly?
Median detects astonishing Tisza lead
Under Endre Hann’s stewardship, Median has proven the sharpest predictor in recent elections, typically within a 1-2% margin. Its most recent poll, conducted between 17 and 20 March, drew on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents via telephone interviews. The firm insists the survey was stratified by settlement type, gender, age, and education, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.
The figures paint a jaw-dropping picture of Tisza’s dominance. According to the poll, as reported by hvg.hu, the party leads by 16 points across the full population, 20 points among those able to choose a party, and a whopping 23 points among firm voters. An earlier Median survey had shown a 20-point edge in that last category, yet now the gap has reportedly yawned even wider.
Has Hungarian society tilted towards Tisza?
Last summer, political analyst Péter Tölgyessy – a former MP and key figure in the Opposition Round Table that negotiated Hungary’s democratic transition – warned that society might lurch towards Tisza, much as it did in the electoral upheavals of 1990, 1994, and 2010, delivering surprise victories to frontrunners. If Median’s numbers hold, that tilt may already have occurred.
Gábor Török, another analyst, has argued that much of the electorate has made up its mind, with battle lines frozen: neither bloc can grow meaningfully, so victory hinges on mobilisation. Here, Fidesz holds an enormous edge, thanks above all to its stranglehold on local councils.
Many now anticipate Tisza triumph
Median’s findings suggest Tisza could secure a clean two-thirds majority in parliament – or perhaps even four-fifths. The pollster even foresees a two-party legislature, discounting Mi Hazánk’s chances of entry.
Another eyebrow-raising statistic: 89% of those able to vote say they would turn out. Fidesz supporters appear less committed than Tisza’s, a potentially decisive factor. Among the voting-age population, 47% expect Péter Magyar to prevail, against 35% for Orbán Viktor – a marked shift in Tisza’s favour over the past two months, when more foresaw a Fidesz win in January. Meanwhile, 56% of Hungarians want a change of government, with little more than a third backing Orbán’s continuation.
Median also judged Péter Magyar the victor of the 15 March “speech contest”: more heard Orbán, but Magyar earned higher marks.
Mi Hazánk-Fidesz pact?
János Lázár, a member of Orbán’s campaign trio, suggests it is time to ponder a coalition with Mi Hazánk. True, Fidesz is pro-EU while Mi Hazánk would drag Hungary out – yet they share far more, not least their self-proclaimed patriotism. Balázs Orbán, the campaign chief, meanwhile, muses that Fidesz should simply poach Mi Hazánk’s voters.
If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 elections:
- Even the company of Trump’s son “believes” that PM Orbán will lose power in April
- Without an election, PM Orbán already secured a mandate in the next Parliament: here’s the trick
What propaganda🤣.
It’s scumbags.
Fidesz is going for a nice victory in April.
Don’t kid yourself, it will be fine.
You are right, Dear Thomas – the premise that Tisza has a massive lead is an outrageous canard; one concocted to suppress Fidesz turnout.
Conspiracy deniers always turned out to be cowards
‘Conspiracy deniers always turned out to be cowards.’
Maybe they are ‘cowards’, Dear Thomas – but, there is one thing of which we can be absolutely sure : in attempting to foster trust in institutions or the elite, which deserve none, they, the Deniers, are collaborators.
“Median detects astonishing Tisza lead.’
Yes, and Median ‘detected’ that Viktor’s challeneger in 2022, Marki-Zay, was ‘astonishingly’ competitive’.
The pattern is clear – Nézőpont publishes an honest poll, reflecting a Fidesz lead, and the very next day Median buries it with a ridiculous lie.
I cannot fathom the misinformation published here, especially by the polling firm Median that miscalculated just about all previous elections. Just because one were wrong 89.67% of the time in previous years, and funded by the left all that time, and not right on the remaining 10.33% of the time, does not mean one cannot be just as wrong the next round as one was before.
Median will tell you, there’s nothing to stop us.
Propaganda? Not really, just FAKE NEWS from the EU where other internal memos suggested that Peter Magyar will win by 129% of the vote and by 99.97% of the Hungarian voters voting for him, because he’s a man of great historical achievement, and mostly because he has a great barber.
At least a barber better than yours.
Just because most of the Hungarian people don’t want him and the EU that has been depriving Hungarians of hospitals, good medical care and infrastructure does, does not mean that you should not go for the George Soros and EU candidate, so Hungary can also get on the DO NOT TRAVEL (not safe) list of the US State Department level II warning, the very same way Brussels and London have.
The next time someone opens his jacket showing off his latest model bomb vest, and shouts out ALLAHU AKHBAR!, my suggestion is to hold your place and do not run.
I can see no reason at all that the Hungarian People cannot learn Arabic the same way the people of Syria , Somali and Yemen have – and I can see no reason at all why Hungary’s churches cannot be converted to mosques in the same way those nation’s mosques have been converted. Do You?
Incidentally, you will need your very own prayer rug, which are discounted at my store at eBay. Mention my name and I will lower the prices another ten percent and throw in a pair of slippers you can leave at the entry to your mosque.