Stunning poll lead for Tisza Party: if accurate, it could give unparalleled power to Péter Magyar

If the latest Median survey is to be believed, Viktor Orbán’s chairmanship of Fidesz itself may be in peril, such is the defeat his party faces at the hands of Péter Magyar’s Tisza movement. Could the institute once hailed as Hungary’s most accurate pollster have erred so spectacularly?

Median detects astonishing Tisza lead

Under Endre Hann’s stewardship, Median has proven the sharpest predictor in recent elections, typically within a 1-2% margin. Its most recent poll, conducted between 17 and 20 March, drew on a nationally representative sample of 1,000 respondents via telephone interviews. The firm insists the survey was stratified by settlement type, gender, age, and education, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.

The figures paint a jaw-dropping picture of Tisza’s dominance. According to the poll, as reported by hvg.hu, the party leads by 16 points across the full population, 20 points among those able to choose a party, and a whopping 23 points among firm voters. An earlier Median survey had shown a 20-point edge in that last category, yet now the gap has reportedly yawned even wider.

Has Hungarian society tilted towards Tisza?

Last summer, political analyst Péter Tölgyessy – a former MP and key figure in the Opposition Round Table that negotiated Hungary’s democratic transition – warned that society might lurch towards Tisza, much as it did in the electoral upheavals of 1990, 1994, and 2010, delivering surprise victories to frontrunners. If Median’s numbers hold, that tilt may already have occurred.

Gábor Török, another analyst, has argued that much of the electorate has made up its mind, with battle lines frozen: neither bloc can grow meaningfully, so victory hinges on mobilisation. Here, Fidesz holds an enormous edge, thanks above all to its stranglehold on local councils.

Many now anticipate Tisza triumph

Median’s findings suggest Tisza could secure a clean two-thirds majority in parliament – or perhaps even four-fifths. The pollster even foresees a two-party legislature, discounting Mi Hazánk’s chances of entry.

Another eyebrow-raising statistic: 89% of those able to vote say they would turn out. Fidesz supporters appear less committed than Tisza’s, a potentially decisive factor. Among the voting-age population, 47% expect Péter Magyar to prevail, against 35% for Orbán Viktor – a marked shift in Tisza’s favour over the past two months, when more foresaw a Fidesz win in January. Meanwhile, 56% of Hungarians want a change of government, with little more than a third backing Orbán’s continuation.

Median also judged Péter Magyar the victor of the 15 March “speech contest”: more heard Orbán, but Magyar earned higher marks.

Mi Hazánk-Fidesz pact?

János Lázár, a member of Orbán’s campaign trio, suggests it is time to ponder a coalition with Mi Hazánk. True, Fidesz is pro-EU while Mi Hazánk would drag Hungary out – yet they share far more, not least their self-proclaimed patriotism. Balázs Orbán, the campaign chief, meanwhile, muses that Fidesz should simply poach Mi Hazánk’s voters.

If you missed our previous articles concerning the 2026 elections:

• Even the company of Trump’s son “believes” that PM Orbán will lose power in April
• Without an election, PM Orbán already secured a mandate in the next Parliament: here’s the trick