If these new polls are accurate, PM Orbán is in deep trouble: is that why black-clad minders shadow his every move?

The 21 Research Centre has conducted telephone polls in so-called “battleground” constituencies—those pivotal seats essential to victory for both the Tisza Party and Fidesz. The results make grim reading for Viktor Orbán, potentially fuelling Péter Magyar’s ambitions for the premiership. Some experts suggest that persistent counter-protests at Orbán’s forums, combined with dismal opinion polls, explain why the prime minister is now accompanied on his campaign trail by black-suited, aggressively behaved figures—a phenomenon unprecedented in Hungary’s electoral campaigns over the past decade.

Even Fidesz strongholds under threat?

Orbán has cause for alarm over his re-election prospects, according to the 21 Research Centre’s latest surveys. Conducted by telephone in February and March with samples of 600 to 800 respondents, these polls show Tisza leading even in Fidesz bastions. In Pest 9, Pest 13, Pest 14, Baranya 2, Borsod 1, Fejér 2, and Bács 6 constituencies—all but one currently held by Fidesz incumbents, some for many years and thus better known than their rookie Tisza challengers—the opposition is ahead.

The 21 Research Centre notes that Pest 13, Pest 14, and Bács 6 are more pro-government than average: they feature high proportions of small villages and low-education voters, with no city exceeding 50,000 inhabitants. Yet late-February and early-March polling detected substantial Tisza leads in Pest 13 and Bács 6. Fidesz edges ahead only in Pest 14 among those who have chosen a candidate, though even among decided voters, Tisza holds a slender advantage. Hungary’s electoral system hinges on individual constituencies in a single round, where a relative majority suffices to win—past Fidesz candidates have triumphed with just over 30 per cent.

Hidden Orbán voters lurking?

Experts endlessly debate the scale of “shy” Fidesz voters. Ruling party spokesmen insist their numbers are vast, promising electoral surprises. Orbán craves another landslide and routinely boasts of certain triumph, though the figures tell a different story.

The most recent nationwide 21 Research Centre poll gave Tisza an 8-point lead among the full population and 14 points among decided party choosers, with turnout projected at 83 per cent—enough to sideline Mi Hazánk from parliament. Median’s findings were starker still: at a record 89 per cent turnout, Tisza led by 23 points among decided voters and 16 points overall. We reported in detail on these numbers.

• Stunning Tisza majority: if true, even Fidesz could oust Orbán

A “black army” shadows Orbán on the stump?

Experts attribute Orbán’s recent escort by a cadre of black-clad, burly figures to poor polls and ceaseless counter-demonstrators. Dubbed the “Black Army” after King Matthias Corvinus’s (1458–1490) mercenaries, the group first appeared in Győr, then Pécel, where they reportedly seized anti-Fidesz banners, flags, and placards. According to hvg.hu, some protesters were wrestled to the ground.

Péter Magyar blames the violence on Orbán’s orchestrated provocations to foment civil war-like tensions. “If everyone stays peaceful and doesn’t rise to the bait, Tisza will win this election handsomely,” he said at a recent forum.

As we have noted before, the election could slip away from Tisza not just via shy Fidesz voters or Orbán’s vaunted mobilisation machine, but through alleged Russian-backed disinformation campaigns targeting the opposition.

• Could Péter Magyar’s lead vanish due to Orbán’s alleged Russian-backed disinformation drive or the mobilisation?