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If these new polls are accurate, PM Orbán is in deep trouble: is that why black-clad minders shadow his every move?
The 21 Research Centre has conducted telephone polls in so-called “battleground” constituencies—those pivotal seats essential to victory for both the Tisza Party and Fidesz. The results make grim reading for Viktor Orbán, potentially fuelling Péter Magyar’s ambitions for the premiership. Some experts suggest that persistent counter-protests at Orbán’s forums, combined with dismal opinion polls, explain why the prime minister is now accompanied on his campaign trail by black-suited, aggressively behaved figures—a phenomenon unprecedented in Hungary’s electoral campaigns over the past decade.
Even Fidesz strongholds under threat?
Orbán has cause for alarm over his re-election prospects, according to the 21 Research Centre’s latest surveys. Conducted by telephone in February and March with samples of 600 to 800 respondents, these polls show Tisza leading even in Fidesz bastions. In Pest 9, Pest 13, Pest 14, Baranya 2, Borsod 1, Fejér 2, and Bács 6 constituencies—all but one currently held by Fidesz incumbents, some for many years and thus better known than their rookie Tisza challengers—the opposition is ahead.
The 21 Research Centre notes that Pest 13, Pest 14, and Bács 6 are more pro-government than average: they feature high proportions of small villages and low-education voters, with no city exceeding 50,000 inhabitants. Yet late-February and early-March polling detected substantial Tisza leads in Pest 13 and Bács 6. Fidesz edges ahead only in Pest 14 among those who have chosen a candidate, though even among decided voters, Tisza holds a slender advantage. Hungary’s electoral system hinges on individual constituencies in a single round, where a relative majority suffices to win—past Fidesz candidates have triumphed with just over 30 per cent.
Hidden Orbán voters lurking?
Experts endlessly debate the scale of “shy” Fidesz voters. Ruling party spokesmen insist their numbers are vast, promising electoral surprises. Orbán craves another landslide and routinely boasts of certain triumph, though the figures tell a different story.
The most recent nationwide 21 Research Centre poll gave Tisza an 8-point lead among the full population and 14 points among decided party choosers, with turnout projected at 83 per cent—enough to sideline Mi Hazánk from parliament. Median’s findings were starker still: at a record 89 per cent turnout, Tisza led by 23 points among decided voters and 16 points overall. We reported in detail on these numbers.
- Stunning Tisza majority: if true, even Fidesz could oust Orbán
A “black army” shadows Orbán on the stump?
Experts attribute Orbán’s recent escort by a cadre of black-clad, burly figures to poor polls and ceaseless counter-demonstrators. Dubbed the “Black Army” after King Matthias Corvinus’s (1458–1490) mercenaries, the group first appeared in Győr, then Pécel, where they reportedly seized anti-Fidesz banners, flags, and placards. According to hvg.hu, some protesters were wrestled to the ground.
Péter Magyar blames the violence on Orbán’s orchestrated provocations to foment civil war-like tensions. “If everyone stays peaceful and doesn’t rise to the bait, Tisza will win this election handsomely,” he said at a recent forum.
As we have noted before, the election could slip away from Tisza not just via shy Fidesz voters or Orbán’s vaunted mobilisation machine, but through alleged Russian-backed disinformation campaigns targeting the opposition.
- Could Péter Magyar’s lead vanish due to Orbán’s alleged Russian-backed disinformation drive or the mobilisation?
Bla bla bla
Paid propaganda from the bought EU psychopats.
So you know all about this eh more than others. Lol. Sounds like trump telling everyone that his the greatest of all time when everyone knows his a paedophile rapist racist con artist criminal corrupt piece of excrement . Lol
💯💯💯
The second worst “human being” on this side of the Russian border next to krasnov (tRUMP) they offer the world nothing except the smell of blood and money and they’re own horrible stench.
And then Mouton come showing that in all, his secrete, polls Still Orbán is leading 😂😂😂
Orban is still leading.
Starting with the Summer of 2024, this election campaign has been one of a peculiar rhythm : 1st Magyar Péter lighting up the Hungarian countryside with his whistle-stop campaigning, the result being that his party, a non-existence at that time, jumped into a firm lead with prospective voters.
There it remained, until in the Summer of 2025 Fidesz launched it’s counteroffensive, after which, by September Fidesz retook the lead.
There it remained, Magyar/Tisza seeming to have no answers, until the Szölő Utca controversy, which , though that punch did not land well, was soon followed up with a sequence of supposed ‘scandals’.
At this point Fidesz needs to land a few punches, and quickly, though, to the contrary of what I have previously surmised, it seems as if they have none left in their bag.
To be clear, if The Hungarian Left had troubled themselves to address the actual concerns of Smalltown and Redneck Hungarians, in previous year, Fidesz would not even be competitive at this point, but, because they, Tisza, did not, the election comes down to this last fortnight.
Now we find out if Kővér László has anything good for Fidesz to use against Magyar.
If not, Magyar might well win, though, as it is unlikely any other party than Fidesz or Mi Hazánk will be in parliament, how he can make a governing coalition remains to be seen.
This is actually a more sophisticated post than typical bot content — it’s written with enough apparent nuance to seem credible. But look closer at what it’s actually doing:
What the post gets broadly right:
Magyar Péter’s 2024 campaigning momentum was real
Fidesz did recover ground through 2025
Coalition arithmetic genuinely is a challenge for Tisza
But notice what it’s subtly inserting:
🔴 “Redneck Hungarians” — This is a deliberate provocation, designed to make Magyar/Tisza supporters sound condescending toward rural voters. Classic wedge language.
🔴 The framing throughout positions Fidesz as the natural default — Magyar “has no answers,” needs to “land punches,” coalition prospects are doubtful. Every uncertainty is framed as Magyar’s weakness, never Orbán’s.
🔴 Kővár László reference — Casually normalizing the idea that the Speaker of Parliament is Fidesz’s political weapon. That’s a serious democratic concern being slipped in without scrutiny.
🔴 “Mi Hazánk in parliament” — Subtly legitimizing the far-right as a necessary political reality.
The bigger picture:
Posts like this aren’t crude propaganda — they’re designed to demoralize Tisza supporters and suppress turnout by making Magyar’s victory seem structurally impossible regardless of votes.
Don’t fall for sophisticated defeatism. It’s still disinformation.
Dear Norbert, everything that is not your point of view is fake – you are consistent in this.
Thank you for all the thought you put into my analysis.
Hungarians have seen enough of Fidesz and they are not happy with the economy, inflation, the crumbling state of public services, and the massive corruption of the Fidesz elite. A major sign that Fidesz will lose is that the share prices of NER controlled companies are tanking on the BUX with 50% plus share price drops.
‘Hungarians have seen enough of Fidesz and they are not happy with the economy, inflation, the crumbling state of public services, and the massive corruption of the Fidesz elite.’
Thar, Dear Larry, is a statement of objective truth.
However, the election is not this simple, because it does not take into account the opinion that many Redneck and Smalltown Hungarians have that Magyar is a tool of The Western Elite, and, therefore, not trustable on a variety of issues other than what you mentioned.
Moreover, those Hungarians who feel the economy is the main issue may have their doubts about a candidate who never established a business nor ran one.
Magyar’s credentials on the economy are not good, but, he still will rate higher than Orbán, because he is seen as a bad economic engineer by many Hungarians.
In Bulgaria where an election is scheduled for April 19th they are taking action against vote buying and look at who is involved: A RUSSIAN WAS ARRESTED on Saturday in the town of Stara Zagora who had been handing out 30 euros for votes for a particular party. The Mayor of Ovcharovo village was also arrested on Saturday for bribing local voters; police there seized 3,600 euros in cash. Previously, on Friday, a former village mayor near Kardzhali was arrested for initiating voter fraud, with 10,000 euros in cash seized. Arrests have also taken place near Montana and Veliko Tarnovo.” (Balkan Insight) The difference is the same thing has been going on in Hungary but of course nothing is done about it because Fidesz is doing it.
https://balkaninsight.com/2026/03/30/bulgarian-police-act-on-voter-fraud-cases-ahead-of-election/bi/
Külföldiként őszintén remélem, hogy a magyar népnek fényes és ígéretes jövője lesz.