More Hungarians now believe Orbán could lose as Tisza opens lead 10 days ahead of election

With just days to go before Hungary’s 12 April parliamentary election, a growing number of voters now believe Prime Minister Viktor Orbán could be heading for defeat, as fresh figures suggest Péter Magyar’s Tisza Party has moved into a clear lead.

First time in a year that people believe Orbán could lose

The latest Publicus figures, published by Népszava, show that this is the first time since January 2025 that more respondents expect a change of government than another Fidesz victory. The shift is narrow but symbolically significant: 39% now expect Fidesz to lose, while 38% still believe Orbán’s party will hold on.

Tisza leads in every key voter category

The numbers point to a steady but meaningful advantage for Tisza.

Among the full electorate, Tisza stands on 36%, compared with 30% for Fidesz. Among certain voters, the gap remains six percentage points at 41% to 35%.

The strongest lead appears among decided party voters, where Tisza reaches 49%, versus 40% for Fidesz: a nine-point advantage that reinforces the growing sense of momentum around Péter Magyar’s party.

Smaller parties remain far behind. Mi Hazánk is hovering around the parliamentary threshold at 4–6%, while both the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) remain on 3%, suggesting Hungary may be heading towards a three-party parliament.

Voters increasingly see Tisza as the likely winner

One of the most striking findings is not just current support, but the public perception of who is now more likely to win.

When asked which party they would bet HUF 10,000 on to win the election, 39% chose Tisza, while 35% backed Fidesz.

The perception gap widens further when respondents were asked what they believe people around them expect. 39% said their neighbours and acquaintances expect a Tisza victory, compared with only 28% who said the same about Fidesz.

This matters politically because once voters begin to sense that power may genuinely change hands, it can influence undecided voters, tactical voting, and turnout in the final stretch.

Most voters have already made up their minds

The race is also hardening.

According to the Publicus data, around four in five voters already know exactly how they will vote, a sharp nine-point increase compared with the previous month. Only 7–8% say they will decide in the final days or inside the polling booth itself.

Turnout expectations also remain extremely high. 78% say they are certain to vote, with both major camps highly mobilised: 94% of Tisza supporters and 91% of Fidesz voters say they will definitely cast a ballot.

A growing appetite for political change

Perhaps the clearest sign of shifting sentiment is that 49% of respondents said they would welcome a Fidesz defeat, while only 35% said they would prefer Orbán’s party to remain in power.

That does not automatically translate into votes, but it shows a national mood in which the possibility of an opposition victory is no longer seen as far-fetched.

With independent polls from other institutes also showing Tisza ahead (in some cases by an even wider margin), the final days of Hungary’s election campaign may now be less about whether Orbán can win comfortably and more about whether he can still prevent what would be the biggest upset of his 16-year rule.

If you missed it:

• Will guest workers stay in Hungary after the election? What Orbán and Magyar promise