The European Commission has proposed a 15-year probation period for future EU member states, with countries potentially facing the loss of voting rights or funding if they breach democratic standards.
The plan, outlined by European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos, is designed to give the bloc faster tools to respond if a newly admitted country undermines the rule of law, democracy or the EU’s principle of sincere cooperation. Kos explicitly invoked the former Hungarian prime minister, saying:
“No more Viktor Orbán.”
The proposals would still require approval from the member states before they could take effect.
Faster sanctions than Article 7
Under the current system, Article 7 of the EU treaties can ultimately suspend a member state’s voting rights following a serious and persistent breach of the bloc’s fundamental values. However, the procedure has never reached that ultimate sanction. Previous efforts to address democratic backsliding in Hungary and Poland were complicated by the countries’ ability to support one another politically.
Kos said the European Union therefore needs quicker mechanisms to deal with potential violations by future members. Under her proposal, the threshold for imposing measures such as suspending voting rights would be lower. The safeguards could also involve withholding funds from a country that breaches democratic principles or fails to uphold its obligations to the bloc.
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Why is the EU considering the change?
The proposal comes as EU enlargement gains new momentum, particularly in eastern Europe and the western Balkans. Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine are among the countries regarded as frontrunners in the current enlargement process. Ukraine and Moldova applied for membership shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, giving fresh impetus to a process that had previously stalled.
As The Guardian reported, he Commission sees enlargement not only as an institutional project but also as a strategic issue. Kos has pointed to competition for influence from Russia and China in countries seeking closer ties with the bloc.
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Safeguards would not be permanent
Kos acknowledged that the proposed probation system would eventually expire. She argued that making the restrictions permanent could create a situation in which some countries were effectively treated as second-class members. The proposed 15-year period would therefore be intended as a temporary safeguard while new members establish themselves within the bloc.
The debate comes as the European Union also considers other ways of preventing future enlargement from creating institutional gridlock, including temporary restrictions on new members’ veto powers. For the proposal to become reality, all existing member states would ultimately have to agree to the changes, meaning the safeguards themselves are likely to become part of the wider political debate over the bloc’s next phase of enlargement.
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