Fidesz would win election today with similar results to 2014, say pollsters
Budapest, April 21 (MTI) – The outcome of Hungary’s general election would be very similar to the results in 2014 if the vote was held now, head of the pollster Nezopont Institute, one of five major pollsters, said at a conference on Thursday.
Representatives of five polling companies who appear jointly on a website that combines their results met to discuss current trends.
Nézőpont head Csaba Fodor said he based his prediction on quarterly aggregates of the five big companies, ZRI/Ipsos, Median, Nézőpont, Századvég and Tárki, displayed on their website kozvelemenykutatok.hu. According to this data Fidesz-KDNP would gain 46 percent of the votes cast in an election, while Jobbik 21 percent and the leftist parties a combined 24 percent . Opposition LMP would have 5 percent which is the threshold for entry to parliament. In a breakdown of results the Socialists would be on 13 percent, the Democratic Coalition (DK) 8 percent Együtt 2 percent and Dialogue for Hungary (PM) 1 percent.
Nézőpont expert Zoltán Kmetty said support for parties does fluctuate while the ratios do not change substantially. For example right after the election win in the autumn of 2014 Fidesz had 38 percent support, which plummeted when the idea of a tax on the internet was flagged later to an all-time low of 27 percent in the first quarter of 2015. By the end of 2015 Fidesz regained popularity standing on 34 percent and now its support stands at 31 percent. Jobbik’s curve showed the opposite trend: in the beginning of the period it rose from 12 percent to 17 percent by the first quarter of 2015 only to drop to 11 percent later last year. Support for the leftist parties is stable, he said. According to Nézőpont, Fidesz mainly gained support among high-status, educated and wealthy people who are more interested in politics.
Endre Sik, head of Tárki, projected that Fidesz would keep its lead in the polls in the long-term, mainly because of its strategy of using the migration crisis to gain popularity. “This theme works especially well when, like now, there are no migrants,” he said. With Fidesz “pushing the panic button brings the votes needed automatically without much effort”.