Fitch: Hungary will not escape recession, the state budget looks bad
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Hungary’s decision to raise its 2023 budget deficit target to 5.2 percent of GDP from 3.9 percent makes reaching next year’s 2.9 percent target “more challenging”; at the same time, inflation is expected to fall sharply, Fitch Ratings said on Friday.
Fitch forecast the 2024 deficit would reach 3.7 percent of GDP in 2024 and 2.8 percent in 2025. Hungary’s state debt relative to GDP should continue to decline gradually in 2023-2025 on the back of “solid” GDP growth and the return of primary surpluses, but the ratio will remain above the ‘BBB’ category median, Fitch said.
Fitch acknowledged press reports suggesting that the European Commission could unlock up to 13.3 billion euros of Hungary’s suspended cohesion funds by the end of 2023 and said the disbursement of the EU funds would “take some pressure off” public finances and be growth-positive. “While an agreement with the EC is our baseline expectation, we remain cautious regarding the timing and size of eventual disbursements,” the rating agency added.
Yeah, a self-fulfilling prophecy. This is how these charlatans manipulate the world’s markets, bring down whole governments, and crash entire economies: They issue a “warning,” which spooks investors, who then take their money out, which starts damaging the economy – rinse and repeat until the place is a basket case, as happened in e.g. Greece. Fitch, Moody, S&P and other sh..kickers like them need to be sent packing.
Hungary – is already a “basket case” in a RECESSION, that has been growing, post February 2020, the outbreak of the Corona Virus Pandemic.
It is WORSENING.