The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR), one of the most prestigious London-based economic consultancies, publishes its World Economic League Table (WELT) forecasts at the end of each year on the ranking of the world’s economies.
The annual report ranks the countries based on their projected economic performance, making predictions for the next 15 years. The report projects that Hungary’s ranking position will not change in the next 15 years.
The position of Hungary
According to CEBR’s calculations, the Hungarian economy will end this year in 58th place, a position that is unlikely to change in the next 15 years, until 2037.
The report finds that real GDP showed a relatively strong increase over the year, however, several economic challenges affected the Hungarian economy negatively. The recent data shows that the country experienced a contraction of 1.3 percent when measured in US dollars in 2022, which can be attributed to the “forint’s depreciation against the dollar, amounting to around 19 percent this year.”
In addition to this economic downturn, Hungary has also struggled with high levels of inflation in 2022.
Only the Baltic countries and the Czech Republic have a higher inflation rate in the European Union. Inflation has been stronger than the annual average in the latter months of the year, being in excess of 20.0 percent across September, October, and November,
If the forecast is accurate, the Hungarian economy will experience an average annual growth rate of 2.5 percent over the 15-year period from 2022 to 2037. This would result in a significant increase in the size of the Hungarian economy, with the nominal GDP, calculated in US dollars at current exchange rates, rising from an expected USD 168 billion in 2022 to USD 391 billion by 2037.
It is also interesting to note that Hungary’s economy has deteriorated compared to previous years, but not by that much. According to last year’s report, Hungary would be ranked 56th this year. This means it has only fallen 2 places compared to last year’s expectations.
Which countries are at the top?
As novekedes.hu wrote, based on the report, the second-placed China will not overtake the first-placed USA in the economic ranking until 2036 at the earliest. As the news portal says,
The institute now predicts that China will become the world’s largest economy by 2036, just one year before the end of the forecast period to 2037, pushing the United States down to second place.
Next year, the following countries are likely to dominate the top 5: