The latest version of the coronavirus, the Omicron variant has already been detected in Hungary. It is still unknown though how much danger this latest variant will pose to the population. A Hungarian university professor presents the projected situation by using a foreign example.
New study on the Omicron variant
The Omicron variant has been detected in Hungary. Gábor Vattay, the head of the Department of Physics of Complex Systems at Eötvös Loránd University, shared his predictions regarding the Hungarian viral situation. “We can now estimate the extent of the Omicron variant’s presence in the country after the new variant has been identified in Hungary,” Vattay began his analysis.
It is still unclear which virus variant is the most dominant in the country.
In order to get a closer understanding, Vattay examined international data to predict the rate of the future domestic cases, writes portfolio.hu. The international figures demonstrate how fast the Omicron variant spreads after its first appearance. In Denmark, they have been monitoring closely the pace of the viral mutation’s spread.
In Denmark, 13 pc of all coronavirus cases are currently Omicron variants.
“It is estimated that Omicron cases will reach 50 pc by Tuesday. And by Christmas, virtually all Danish cases will be Omicron,” Vattay concluded his analysis.
What will the future hold?
In the Danish cases, a very steep rise can be observed. A similar trend can be seen in the UK as well. With a prevalence of about 5-10 pc, there is a sharp increase in the number of cases per day. In the case of Hungary, we cannot yet experience this leap.
The Omicron variant may be below 5 pc in Hungary.
However, two cases have already been reported in Hungary when the infected people did not spend time abroad. Taken this into consideration, we can conclude that the latest variant of the virus has started spreading in Hungary as well. “Since the Omicron infections double every 3 days, disease rates rise rapidly which should be visible on the daily case count curves within the next three weeks,” the expert believes.
It would be important to estimate an exact proportion by sampling. This would allow to construct a more realistic epidemic curve and draw a more accurate conclusion. Currently, the Delta virus variant is the most common in Hungary, writes felvidek.ma. However, that may change soon.
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Source: felvidek.ma, portfolio.hu
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