Local Elections – Tarlos Leads, Left Fights Old Woes, Say Analysts
Budapest, September 30 (MTI) – The withdrawal of Ferenc Falus from his candidacy for the post of Budapest mayor has not altered parties’ chances in the local elections substantially, political analysts polled by MTI today said.
The left is not able to overcome its old mistakes, and Tarlos still has a very good chance of winning the mayoral race, they agreed. Turnout, however, is expected to be below average at the October 12 municipal elections.
Falus announced that he has quit as the leftist candidate for mayor of Budapest on Monday. The Democratic Coalition (DK) and the Egyutt parties pledged support for Lajos Bokros, the mayoral candidate of the conservative Movement for a Modern Hungary (MoMa). The Dialogue for Hungary (PM) party, which is a part of the opposition E-PM party alliance, does not support Bokros. The Socialists have not yet come forward with a unified plan.
Robert Laszlo, an analyst for Political Capital, said the outcome of the mayoral race will not be influenced by the fact that the number of candidates has fallen. Tarlos is still the favourite, he said. The Socialists, DK, Egyutt and PM do not trust each other and have been carving up the cake for some time, which has resulted in scaring away committed voters. Although Bokros probably has supporters who see him as a credible choice and even give him a realistic chance of winning, there are probably even more disillusioned voters who will stay away from polls, seeing that the opposition is preoccupied with itself just two weeks before voting day, he added.
Orsolya Szomszed, an analyst for Nezopont, said the left has apparently “given up” the mayoral race. She said there is no unified backing for Bokros and lining up behind him is more damage control than part of a carefully-designed strategy. Tarlos’s lead is unchallengeable, she said, noting that support for Falus and Bokros do not add up automatically for the left, as some voters will pull away and vote for LMP or the Liberal Party. The left has but the district mayors to focus on, and has probably given up on the top mayoral post, she added.
Laszlo agreed that the left has repeated its earlier mistake of concentrating too much on internal disputes instead of campaigning against those in power. “The Socialists are unable to do as much as to decide on a simple yes-no question,” he said, referring to the party’s stalled response on whether to back Bokros’s candidacy. If in the three-and-a-half years after the local elections tensions mount again on the left, not every party currently on the horizon will live to see the parliamentary elections, he said.
Photo: MTI – Attila Kovacs
Source: http://mtva.hu/hu/hungary-matters
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