Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party seemed only a few months ago to be a monolithic bloc, unassailable at the summit of power. Now, however, it appears it could even split in two: into an Orbán party and a moderate, centre-right grouping. A fresh Medián poll may now give that scenario another push.
A new civic party would stand a good chance
Medián Research Institute is the only Hungarian polling company to have accurately predicted the results of every parliamentary and European Parliament election, and it also pinpointed the scale of Tisza’s April victory with remarkable precision, assigning Péter Magyar’s movement exactly the number of seats it ultimately won.
On the basis of the latest Medián survey, if former Fidesz politicians who represented a moderate, civic line were to found a new party, they would make it into parliament. Of course, that is meagre consolation in light of the party’s former multi-million vote hauls and two-thirds majorities: sitting in opposition in the Hungarian National Assembly under current conditions is useful at best for paying politicians and their assistants, while against governing parties armed with a two-thirds majority the chances of any real success are slim.
In any case, Medián says a new civic force would be able to appeal to at least 5 per cent of the total population. Had such a party existed in April, then according to the poll summarised by hvg.hu it would have been the third-largest group in parliament, ahead of Mi Hazánk.
Many Fidesz voters are only loosely tied to Orbán
Names have also been mentioned in connection with the new formation. Among public figures seen as part of Fidesz’s moderate wing — and critical of the party leadership according to both the news and their own remarks — atv.hu cited former EC commissioner and minister Tibor Navracsics, Székesfehérvár mayor András Cser-Palkovics, and former MP and government commissioner Orsolya Ferenc.
Interestingly, according to Median, only one third of current Fidesz supporters remain firmly loyal to Viktor Orban, while 18 per cent would have no problem switching to the new party, and 15 per cent would at least consider it. The new party could therefore potentially count on roughly one third of Fidesz’s existing camp — which stands at around 19-20 per cent support — but that would indeed be enough to clear the parliamentary threshold, at least under the current rules.
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A rock-solid Tisza lead
Tisza, meanwhile, has promised a new electoral law, which is also a social expectation of them. Within that framework they are already talking about a number of innovations, including limits on MPs as well. The more hardline camp would allow anyone to sit in parliament for just two terms, while the more permissive would allow three terms, or 12 years. All this also means that Mi Hazánk’s caucus could be completely replaced, while within Fidesz’s parliamentary group replacements are already under way so that those who still see a future in parliamentary work can take on the government across the chamber.
Tisza continues to enjoy support unseen before among Hungarian voters: 57 per cent of the total population would back it in an election held this Sunday.
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A “survey”… HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It seems the globalist-socialist sh.t-kickers aren’t content with having conned the Hungarians into electing their hand-puppet St. Peti with a huge majority. They absolutely must DESTROY Fidesz so that when St. Peti finally drops the mask, there is no ACTUAL opposition people can flock to for salvation. That’s what these ‘surveys” and “studies” are really about. Median never actually asked anybody anything; this is just a bit of agitprop designed to undermine Fidesz and Orban.
For those doubting me, consider this: We keep hearing how St. Peti’s support and popularity are in the stratosphere. Why, then, would many of those same people who supposedly venerate him be so quick to consider ditching him for a bastardized Fidesz faction? It makes no sense until you realize what those who claim to have conducted such surveys, and their paymasters, are up to.