Europe is heading towards a potentially snow-poor winter in 2026–2027, with the latest seasonal models pointing to below-average snowfall across much of the continent. Hungary is also expected to see less snow than usual, while a strong El Niño could influence when the heaviest snowfall arrives.
The latest seasonal forecast suggests that winter sports enthusiasts and snow lovers across Europe may be disappointed this year. According to an analysis by Severe Weather Europe, which combines data from six seasonal weather models, much of the continent is expected to receive less snow than average during the winter of 2026–2027.
The October update paints a less snowy picture than the forecasts published in September, with all major European regions showing a downward trend in expected snowfall. The biggest shortfalls are projected in southern and central Europe, although western Europe is also likely to experience significantly less snow than usual.
For Hungary, the outlook is similarly disappointing. The models show no indication of above-average snowfall, with the country potentially receiving less snow than the long-term average throughout the winter.
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Where will Europe see the biggest snowfall shortages?
The most pronounced snow deficits are forecast along Norway’s western coastline, in northern parts of the United Kingdom and across the western Balkans. Much of southern Europe is also unlikely to experience particularly snowy conditions.
Above-average snowfall is expected in only a handful of areas, mainly in north-eastern Europe and some northern mountain regions. Parts of Scandinavia could fare better, while certain areas of the Alps may also see more favourable conditions.
The new projections suggest that regions receiving close to their usual snowfall levels could be among the luckier parts of Europe this winter.
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February could bring the best chance of snow
The forecast also examines how snowfall could be distributed throughout the season, suggesting that the timing of winter precipitation will be just as important as the overall amount.
December is not expected to bring above-average snowfall to any of Europe’s major regions. This could mean a slow start to the winter, with more substantial snowfall arriving later in the season.
February stands out as a potentially snowier month in parts of north-eastern and east-central Europe, as well as some northern areas of the continent. Certain parts of Germany and Poland, Ukraine and southern Sweden could receive more snow than usual.
By March, the signal for above-average snowfall is expected to persist mainly in Europe’s northernmost regions. Southern Europe, meanwhile, is not forecast to see above-average snowfall in any of the winter months.
Hungary is not expected to benefit from this late-season pattern, with the models showing no clear prospect of above-average snowfall even in February.
How could a strong El Niño influence the winter?
A strong El Niño is expected to be one of the major factors shaping global weather patterns during the 2026–2027 winter.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. This can influence atmospheric circulation, affecting the distribution of precipitation and cold air across different parts of the world.
Its effects vary by region, but the phenomenon is associated with winter weather patterns that can favour a slower start to the snowfall season in some areas, followed by more significant snow events later on.
However, seasonal forecasts are not precise predictions of individual weather events. Conditions can change as winter approaches, and the latest projections should be treated as an indication of the likely overall pattern rather than a guarantee of how much snow a particular location will receive.
