Tripling gas bills? Analysts debunk Orbán’s dramatic claims

PM Orbán has issued alarming warnings about soaring gas bills should the EU move to ban Russian energy imports. Citing figures that suggest utility costs could more than triple, Orbán’s remarks have sparked concern among households. Yet energy analysts and recent studies paint a very different picture…

Would energy prices skyrocket?

As Válasz Online writes, PM Viktor Orbán has recently sounded an alarm over a potential spike in household energy prices, linking it to a possible EU-wide ban on Russian gas imports. Speaking on Kossuth Radio, Orbán claimed that a proposal driven by Ukraine and backed by the European Commission would significantly increase utility bills. He even presented a visual example suggesting that the average household gas bill could more than triple from HUF 16,000 (EUR 39,61) to HUF 54,000 (EUR 133,68). Following a high-level meeting that excluded the energy minister, Orbán announced that from September, utility bills would display the hypothetical extra costs if Russian gas were to be cut off.

Orbán vs. experts

However, energy experts and recent studies suggest Orbán’s claims are significantly overstated. Under the EU’s current plan, the deadline for ending long-term contracts with Russian suppliers is set for 2027. This gives Hungary a buffer of over two years before any real supply changes would be felt. Moreover, market forecasts indicate that global gas prices are expected to fall over the coming years due to rising LNG production capacity in the US, Qatar, and Africa. Countries like Austria, which have already transitioned away from Russian gas, have not experienced such drastic price surges, casting doubt on Orbán’s apocalyptic projections.