A Hungarian newspaper acquired an analysis made by the epidemic group of the Minister for Innovation and Technology stating that the number of COVID-19 deaths will start to rise significantly from the beginning of next month. Further details below.
According to Nepszava, an expert told them that the reason for the potential increase is that the virus spreads among young people during the second wave of the epidemic. In Florida, Spain, or Southern France, the same trend happened before, and it also started with a relatively low number of proved infections, but the moment it reached the older generation, the number of deaths started to rise quickly.
In those countries, 4-5 weeks passed between the first time high numbers of infection were registered and the first time high numbers of death were registered. Interestingly, the Ministry for Innovation and Technology
predicted the future of the epidemic in spring more accurately than any other institution in Hungary.
In spring, both the Ministry of Human Capacities (EMMI) and the Ministry of Technology and Innovation (ITM) made scenarios about the epidemic, but both calculated with only minus 20 pc of reduction in the physical contact between people. Therefore, both of them said that, by August, there would be millions of infected Hungarians. However, since the reduction in personal contact exceeded 60 pc in the country and even reached 90 pc in Budapest, the final numbers were only a fraction of the previously calculated ones.
In spring, the Ministry of Technology and Innovation said that the country needed a combined strategy against the virus because keeping the number of physical contacts that low is unsustainable. Therefore, they said that the government should extend testing because
90-95 pc of those infected do not get put into quarantine since nobody knows about them.
Gergely Röst, a mathematician at the University of Szeged, added that the government should increase the efficiency of contact tracing as well. He said that involving medical universities in mass testing has been the only positive decision since their warning in spring.
PM Viktor Orbán said on Monday that, according to the experts, the highest number of infected people in Hungary could “only” be 200 thousand, which means that
they would need 16 thousand hospital beds and 800 ventilators.
He added that he calculates with double those numbers, but he said that even such numbers would not cause any problems, and nobody would remain without proper care.