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Tisza may lead, but the April election is far from decided: key factors to watch
Government-aligned think tanks insist nothing threatens Viktor Orbán’s victory on 12 April, though they candidly classify as Fidesz supporters even those who might back the ruling parties only in specific circumstances. By contrast, every independent institute points to a Tisza triumph on the basis of the numbers. Yet one of Hungary’s most respected political analysts cautions that elections are about more than mere arithmetic, spotlighting a crucial indicator that could even foretell the final outcome.
Who will win the April election?
Drawing on data from seven research institutes, Partizán and Választási földrajz have produced a projection suggesting a 77.8 per cent chance of a comfortable Tisza majority following the 2026 poll. However, Gábor Török, a leading Hungarian political commentator, argues that victory hinges not just on mathematics but on heart, momentum, and other intangibles. He currently tilts towards a Fidesz win (45 per cent likelihood) over Tisza (a mere 40 per cent).
Just days earlier, Török highlighted the consumer confidence index’s position relative to the 2022 parliamentary election. This metric tends to track government approval closely. The key point: it stood at minus 11 in April 2022, but now languishes at minus 22 – markedly lower. That said, it has climbed almost relentlessly since last summer (dipping below minus 30 at one stage).
One major pre-election question, in Török’s view, is whether the government’s handouts – the 13th and 14th-month pensions, cash bonuses for armed forces personnel, tax exemptions for mothers of two or more children, and the like – can nudge this index higher still.
A voting system skewed in favour of the winners
Equally pivotal is whether Hungary’s electoral system, crafted by Orbán’s allies to tilt towards rural areas and victors, can smooth away Tisza’s national lead of 4-5 percentage points (concentrated in larger cities and Budapest) and conjure a Fidesz victory from it. In a recent Válasz Online podcast, Mátyás Bódi of Választási földrajz and Róbert László of Political Capital noted that Hungarian rules permit up to a ±20 per cent disparity in voting-age populations between constituencies – potentially a 1.5-fold difference. A rural seat might thus require just 60,000 votes, while in the capital it could demand 90,000.
Mobilisation battle ahead
Experts say this setup can “handle” a 2-3 per cent gap to Fidesz’s advantage, meaning Tisza could claim more votes overall yet still see Fidesz secure a governing majority through individual constituency wins. Both analysts concur, however, that differences exceeding 3 per cent overwhelm the system – and non-government institutes are measuring more than that now.
The coming weeks could prove decisive, though battle lines are drawn; turnout on 12 April will be all-important. Many experts see this poll as above all a mobilisation contest, in which Fidesz has outpaced rivals for decades.
Is Péter Magyar a fitter premier than Orbán?
According to Medián – arguably Hungary’s most reliable pollster, based on past performance – 54 per cent of voting-age Hungarians deem Péter Magyar more suited to the premiership than Viktor Orbán. That figure was just 48 per cent in November.
Závecz’s latest survey detected some 400,000 more potential Tisza voters than Fidesz ones across the entire population (2.9 million versus 2.5 million).
If you missed our previous articles concerning the possible 2026 election outcomes:
- US pollster reveals clear-cut verdict on Hungarian April elections
- Less taxes for the less fortunate, leaving Russian energy: Tisza Party reveals policy programme
- PM Orbán may turn to Rubio instead of Trump: One of America’s big players heading to Budapest?
My God, what a pile of rubbish….
The English electoral system is skewed towards the winner. In Hungary, if you did not get the first in the individual race, your votes go to the party list, so they are not lost. Unlike in England.
Oh, did I mention, that there is a party list, which distributes almost half the seats?
Unlike in England. Now that is a system ripe for corruption, manipulation and interference.
But let’s not compare ourselves to the “Western Utopias”, because it embarrasses them, shall we? Did anyone think, how do you solve the “Tisza has a 9999999999999% lead” and “Tisza might not win” contradiction?
Easy. (Some of) the pollsters are paid to produce astroturfing propaganda, but they still need to pretend not to produce outright propagandistic “toxic waste”, so they lie, that Tisza is far ahead, while hinting on the truth, that this does not mean a Tisza victory (because the whole lie was a farce in the first place).
There is a level of ridicule even they can’t survive, so contradicting themselves paradoxically shields them. But I wonder who is stupid enough to believe people that contradict themselves, but the same people believe in someone that betrayed his wife, so…
So sorry for anyone dreaming about Hungary becoming a new serf in the Western Barack, or pawn on the chess board. Hungary will not change her government, and we will continue to resist the globalist oppression coming from the West.
You are allowed to dream, but I warn you: the more you delude yourselves, the harder reality will punch you in the gut 2 months from now.