US intelligence assessments indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin could attempt to test NATO’s unity by launching a limited attack against a member state within the next few years, according to sources familiar with the reports.
The assessments reportedly outline several possible scenarios, ranging from a cyberattack to a small-scale military incursion. The objective would be to test how NATO responds and whether the alliance would remain united in the face of an attack on one of its members.
The reports do not establish when such an attack might take place or what form it would take. However, the Baltic states and Poland are reportedly considered among the most likely potential targets.
Russia could test NATO’s Article 5
One of the key concerns is that Moscow could deliberately launch an attack that challenges NATO’s commitment to Article 5 without immediately triggering an all-out military confrontation. Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty establishes the principle of collective defence: an armed attack against one NATO member is considered an attack against all members.
According to the intelligence assessments, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, a limited incursion could therefore be designed to expose disagreements between NATO members over how far the alliance should go in responding.
A cyberattack or other form of hybrid aggression could represent one possible scenario, while another could involve a small-scale incursion into allied territory. The timing remains uncertain. One source cited by CNN said Putin’s potential window for choosing his next course of action could extend from now into the next few years. US and NATO officials reportedly believe the risk could increase if Putin fails to secure a favourable way out of the war in Ukraine.
Baltics and Poland could be particularly vulnerable
While there is no confirmed Russian plan to attack a NATO country, sources familiar with the assessments reportedly consider the Baltic states and Poland among the most likely potential targets. The region has already been at the centre of heightened tensions between Russia and NATO.
Russia has repeatedly been accused of actions affecting NATO territory and airspace in recent years. In September 2025, NATO fighter jets shot down Russian drones that had entered Polish airspace during a Russian attack on Ukraine.
In May this year, a drone carrying explosives struck an apartment building in Romania while Russian forces were attacking a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring two people. These incidents have added to concerns that the conflict could spill over beyond Ukraine through direct or hybrid attacks.
NATO says it is prepared for multiple scenarios
NATO has declined to comment specifically on classified US intelligence assessments. Martin O’Donnell, a senior NATO military spokesperson, said the alliance is constantly preparing for a range of possible scenarios.
He stressed that NATO is monitoring developments and remains prepared to deter threats and defend its members if necessary. The alliance has significantly strengthened its eastern flank since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with additional troops, air defences and military infrastructure deployed across the region.
Explosive-laden drone raises fresh concerns in Germany
The intelligence reports come as European authorities investigate another potentially serious incident. An explosive-laden drone discovered at an airport in Germany this week was assessed by the United States as belonging to a Russian intelligence service, according to a US defence official cited by CNN.
The drone reportedly carried military-grade explosives and was found in a secure area used for cargo flight operations. German Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt described the discovery of an armed drone at an airport as a new type of threat. He later indicated that the device could be linked to foreign powers, although he did not identify a specific country.
Germany’s National Security Council, led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, met on Friday to discuss the incident. The case has added to concerns about Russia’s increasingly sophisticated use of hybrid tactics, including drones, cyber operations, sabotage and other activities below the threshold of conventional warfare.
US weapons stocks add another layer of concern
The latest intelligence assessment also comes at a difficult time for the United States and its allies, as concerns grow over available stocks of key munitions and missile interceptors. The US has supplied significant quantities of weapons to its allies during recent conflicts, while American military resources have also been used in the war against Iran.
According to CNN, nearly 80 per cent of US THAAD missile interceptors and roughly half of its Patriot interceptors have been depleted compared with pre-war levels.
At the same time, civilian casualties from Russian long-range attacks in Ukraine have increased sharply. The United Nations has reported a 60 per cent increase in civilian casualties from such weapons between January and June compared with the same period last year.
A major Russian attack this week involving ballistic and anti-ship missiles killed at least 17 people and wounded dozens more, according to CNN. None of the missiles involved was intercepted by Ukrainian air defences.
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Ukraine war remains central to the risk assessment
The intelligence assessment comes as US-led diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine have stalled. Western sanctions have put pressure on the Russian economy, but they have not persuaded Putin to end the invasion.
According to the sources cited by CNN, the Kremlin’s future decisions could partly depend on the outcome of the war. If Putin fails to secure a face-saving settlement, US and NATO officials believe he could consider escalating against the alliance.
That does not mean an attack on NATO is inevitable. Rather, the intelligence assessments highlight a potential scenario in which Russia could deliberately test the alliance’s resolve. For NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank, however, the warning underscores the continuing importance of deterrence and collective defence as the war in Ukraine enters another potentially dangerous phase.
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Putin is the Nazi leader of Russia – a 21st century Hitler who is bent on imperial expansion. The only way you can protect yourself is through a strong military deterrent and strong response to any attack he may make. Fortunately now Putin is bleeding Russia out in his Russian “Vietnam” that he created for himself in Ukraine with his imperialistic fantasies. He is weakening Russia with his war bleeding a torrent of money and men while Ukraine enacts further economic damage to his energy industry and consumer economy. Russia is paying dearly for Putin’s wickedness.