Why Orbán lost: a poll reveals the main reasons behind Fidesz’s defeat

Hungary’s post-election political atmosphere has changed fast, and not only at the level of party politics. A Medián public opinion survey commissioned by HVG and RTL offers one of the clearest snapshots yet of why Orbán lost and what voters expect next from the new Tisza government led by Péter Magyar.

The headline finding is striking: respondents most frequently blamed corruption for the governing party’s election defeat. While economic pressures and “cost of living” issues still matter, Medián’s numbers indicate that integrity and accountability have moved to the centre of voter thinking in a way that many observers say was not as dominant in previous cycles.

Corruption emerges as the leading explanation

In Medián’s open-ended question about the reasons for the election outcome, 49% of respondents cited corruption as the key driver of the Fidesz loss. Other reasons trailed well behind: 19% mentioned deteriorating living standards and 15% referenced “lies”, according to the survey summary. Additional explanations that appeared in responses included fear-based messaging and war-related rhetoric.

For international readers, it is worth noting what an “open-ended” polling question means here: respondents are not selecting from a pre-written list. Instead, they name their own reasons, which can make the ranking particularly revealing about what is most salient in public debate.

A shift in competence perceptions: Magyar gains ground even among Fidesz voters

The Medián findings also point to a change in how voters assess leadership suitability. According to the survey summary, one in five Fidesz voters now consider Péter Magyar “completely” or “rather” suitable to serve as prime minister. At the same time, perceptions of Viktor Orbán’s suitability reportedly weakened compared to March.

This does not necessarily mean former Fidesz voters have moved en masse to the new governing party. But it suggests the election has opened up a space where some previously loyal voters are at least willing to contemplate an alternative leader — a meaningful indicator in a political system shaped by Orbán’s long dominance.

Hope rises, but patience remains: results expected in 2–3 years

Medián’s survey also described a more optimistic public mood overall. Around three-quarters of respondents reportedly view the period ahead as “hopeful”, including roughly a quarter of Fidesz voters.

At the same time, expectations are ambitious but not uniformly immediate. In the poll summary, only 25% expect visible results within a year, while nearly half anticipate improvements within two to three years. That timeline matters for assessing political stability: voters appear ready to give the new government some time, but not an open-ended blank cheque.

What voters want fixed first: healthcare and the economy

When asked spontaneously to name the two most important issues the new government should address, respondents put healthcare reform first, followed by economic recovery. Anti-corruption measures and accountability were high on the list as well, alongside education reform.

This ordering is important for understanding the next phase. Even if corruption is seen as the main reason for the previous government’s defeat, voters still prioritise day-to-day public services and financial security — and they may judge the new administration on whether it can deliver practical improvements in those areas.

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Post-election signals: institutions adjust, investigations accelerate

The reporting you shared also points to a broader “climate change” after the vote, with institutions and media organisations appearing to adapt quickly to the new political reality. It describes intensified activity by law enforcement bodies in cases that were previously seen as stalled, as well as high-profile detentions and arrests in corruption-related investigations.

Some claims remain unconfirmed: for example, the material notes that alleged actions at the tax authority (NAV) were not publicly verified. For readers, the key takeaway is not any single case, but the perception — reinforced by multiple developments — that the system is moving into a more confrontational, accountability-focused phase.

Why Orbán lost — and why the next chapter is risky

Taken together, the Medián findings sketch a simple but demanding political equation: voters appear to have punished the former government primarily for corruption and perceived arrogance, while expecting the new leadership to improve core public services and economic performance within a few years.

That is a high bar. The new government may benefit from momentum and goodwill, but expectations can turn into disappointment if reforms stall, internal conflicts emerge, or promised accountability fails to materialise. In short: why Orbán lost may be clearer than ever — but whether the new era delivers what voters now demand is the next test.

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