Is PM Orbán dismantling Bosnia-Hercegovina? Elite Hungarian armed forces’ office opened causing fear and outrage

Hungary’s Counter-Terrorism Centre (TEK) has opened an office in Banja Luka, the capital of Republika Srpska, at the end of January. The facility was duly inaugurated by the Bosnian Serb interior minister and the TEK’s director. Yet this move may be unconstitutional – a fact of which officials in Budapest are undoubtedly aware. Orbán has long been a staunch supporter of Milorad Dodik, the former Bosnian Serb president who has campaigned for secession for years. Is there a connection?

Dodik’s grand plan: uniting all Serbs

Dodik’s scheme is straightforward: extract the Serb entity from Bosnia-Hercegovina, then join his ally, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, by merging into Serbia. Hungary appears to have been dealt a hand in this plot, even as the much-vaunted Serb-Hungarian bromance coincides with the brutal depletion of the Hungarian minority in Vojvodina (Serbia’s Délvidék region).

Bosnia-Hercegovina remains a unique and fragile entity on Europe’s map, functioning as it does precisely because it was forged in Dayton after the devastating Yugoslav civil war. The key is that each constituent part – the Serb Republic and the Bosniak-Croat Federation, plus the Brčko District – has its own parliament and presidency, as does the country at large. Overseeing it all is the UN High Representative, wielding near-absolute power. That role is currently filled by Christian Schmidt, a lesser-known German CSU politician. He exercises this authority only when the post-1995 order is threatened – for instance, if his rulings are deliberately ignored, as Dodik did when he was president of the Serb entity.

Bosnia-Hercegovina: the fragile state

From the outset, Dodik has fought for greater autonomy, pushing through laws that the High Representative then blocked and ordered rescinded. Dodik refused to comply, and ultimately lost power in the ensuing legal battle.

His spirit, however, endures in Bosnian Serb areas. He remains leader of the governing party and, in that capacity, holds regular talks with Orbán or Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

TEK operatives first appeared in Banja Luka in February last year, according to whispers, to extract Dodik – then awaiting a court verdict. That did not materialise, but the episode shattered trust: EUFOR peacekeepers, for one, signalled they wanted no Hungarian troops, given Budapest’s alignment with one side.

TEK office in Banja Luka

The TEK has now stunned Bosnian public opinion by opening its office in Banja Luka at the end of January. Officially, it is to combat terrorism. In reality, stationing a foreign state’s police force in the Serb entity – without the other entity’s consent – contravenes the constitution.

Orbán on a 2016 drill with agents of TEK:

Kemal Ademović, chairman of Bosnia-Hercegovina’s upper house of parliament, deems it unconstitutional and seeks clarification. The move sets a precedent, as the TEK has no such offices elsewhere, reports Telex.

Are Hungarian counter-terrorists there for the re-run elections?

The timing may tie to repeat presidential elections on 8 February across several municipalities. These followed a narrow 3 per cent win for Siniša Karan, a Dodik ally, amid dismal turnout. He scraped through again, this time by 2.5 per cent. The victory is fleeting: general elections loom in October.

Relations between Budapest and Sarajevo’s central government are already abysmal: neither Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó nor his deputy, Levente Magyar, has been permitted to land military aircraft there.

If you missed our previous articles:

• PM Orbán’s ally loses power in Bosnia: will Hungarian TEK agents interfere?
• Hungarian peacekeepers can be expelled from Bosnia since PM Orbán works on the country’s disintegration
• Bosnia-Herzegovina officially requests replacement of Hungarian peacekeepers in the country