Hungary’s population could fall to just 5.2 million by the end of the century, with the country facing an increasingly ageing population that may be unable to reverse the decades-long decline, according to demographer Pál Péter Tóth.

Hungary’s population could shrink to around 5.2 million by 2100, according to a demographic forecast presented at the 64th Hungarian Economic Association’s Annual Meeting in Eger.

Demographer Pál Péter Tóth said the projected population would also be considerably older and less economically active than today. He argued that Hungary’s population decline, which has been ongoing since 1980, has reached a point where simply increasing the number of births would not be enough to reverse the trend.

Tóth made the comments during a session examining Hungary’s demographic challenges.

Population decline could become irreversible

According to the demographer, Hungary could face a demographic crisis by 2100 from which it would be extremely difficult to recover. He said the projected population of 5.2 million would be predominantly elderly, with relatively few people of working age and fewer women able to have children.

Such an age structure would make it increasingly difficult for Hungary to maintain its population naturally, Tóth argued.

He also cited estimates suggesting that the number of Roma people in Hungary could rise from around 800,000 today to approximately 1.5 million by 2100, meaning that a significant share of the country’s much smaller future population could belong to the Roma community.

Tóth argued that stopping population decline should be the most important task of any Hungarian government, with policies aimed both at encouraging people to have children and at reducing mortality.

He also criticised the exclusion of migration from what he described as the three main components of population change: births, deaths and migration.

Migration, he said, has been part of Hungarian history throughout the centuries and should not simply be left out of the demographic equation. Tóth concluded his presentation with a blunt assessment of Hungary’s family policies:

“They thought that if they gave families money, there would be children. But they gave families money, and there were no children.”

Are family policies actually increasing births?

Sociologist József Benda focused on what he called the “demographic paradox”, arguing that families and the economy are effectively competing for the same resources. In his view, modern societies have increasingly prioritised immediate production and consumption over investing in raising the next generation.

Benda pointed to a relationship between women’s participation in the labour market and falling birth rates. He noted that periods when female employment rose significantly — including the 1970s and the past decade — also coincided with declines in the number of children being born.

At the same time, he stressed that Hungary’s falling fertility rate fits into a broader trend seen across Eastern Europe.

Benda called for a change in approach. While the previous Hungarian government placed strong emphasis on supporting families over the past decade, he argued that many of its measures were primarily designed to facilitate women’s participation in the labour market rather than directly increase the number of children being born.

He identified measures such as childcare support and the Babaváró loan, a state-backed family loan, as examples of policies more directly linked to encouraging childbearing.

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Hungary’s society is becoming less child-friendly

Journalist Anita Élő, a board member of the Hungarian Economic Association’s Demographic Section, argued that Hungary is increasingly not a family-friendly society. She pointed to the growing number of child-free services and businesses, including travel agencies targeting people who do not want to travel with children, as well as childfree hotels and restaurants.

According to Élő, social attitudes towards having children are changing rapidly, and neither governments nor demographers can reverse this trend on their own. She also highlighted the growing number of young people who consciously decide not to have children, arguing that ultimately only they can change that decision.

Élő was also the only speaker during the session to mention climate anxiety as a factor that could discourage people from having children.

The generation at the centre of the issue was missing

The discussion itself came under criticism for being somewhat “old-fashioned”, as the generation currently making decisions about whether to have children was largely absent from the panel, 444.hu writes.

The role of men in family life, having children and raising them was also not discussed in detail.

Instead, the session included examples of foreign workers being brought into Hungary to work as nannies.