There is now an exact date of when Hungary could adopt the euro if the country successfully meets the necessary economic and legal requirements, according to a potential timetable outlined by Zoltán Kurali, Deputy Governor of the Hungarian National Bank (Magyar Nemzeti Bank, MNB).
A possible pathway to the euro area
Speaking at Portfolio’s Back to Europe conference, Kurali said Hungary could join the ERM II exchange-rate mechanism in 2029, with a final decision on euro adoption expected in 2031. The process could begin as early as this autumn, when the government is expected to present its medium-term macroeconomic plan. If the plan proves credible and successful, Kurali said there would be no reason to delay negotiations on joining ERM II.
Legal harmonisation could begin in 2027, while a 2028 convergence report would assess whether Hungary is meeting key requirements, including targets for inflation, public finances and debt. ERM II membership is normally required for at least two years before adopting the euro, although countries often remain in the mechanism for longer.
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Lower inflation target could help
The MNB recently lowered its inflation target from 3% to 2.5%, effective from 2028. Kurali said the change could help Hungary meet the inflation criterion required for euro adoption, which can officially happen on 1 January, 2032.
He also noted that some benefits could emerge before the common currency is actually introduced. A credible plan to meet the necessary conditions could reduce government bond yields as investors gain confidence in Hungary’s economic trajectory.
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Risks still remain
However, joining the euro area would also involve significant trade-offs. Hungary would surrender part of its independent monetary policy, while the European Central Bank’s interest-rate decisions would not necessarily match the country’s economic needs at every point. Kurali also warned that choosing an inappropriate final conversion rate could create lasting competitiveness problems.
Economists have similarly cautioned against rushing the process. A slower convergence path could provide more time for structural reforms and investment, while market confidence may depend more on a credible roadmap than on a specific adoption date. For now, therefore, 2032 should be viewed as a potential target rather than a guaranteed date for Hungary to adopt the euro.
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