Hungarian energy group MOL could be the leading candidate to acquire some of Saudi oil giant Saudi Aramco’s assets in Poland, including its 30 per cent stake in the Gdańsk oil refinery, according to Polish media reports. A deal would strengthen MOL’s position in one of Central Europe’s key fuel markets, although no sale has been confirmed.
MOL could link Polish retail and refining operations
Polish newspaper Rzeczpospolita reports that Saudi Aramco has appointed investment bank JPMorgan Chase to assess potential options for its Polish interests. Three prospective buyers have reportedly been identified, with MOL considered a strong contender alongside international energy companies BP and Shell.
A potential acquisition would build on MOL’s existing presence in Poland. In 2022, the Hungarian company bought 417 filling stations in the country for more than USD 600 million (approximately EUR 538.4 million) as part of the asset disposals associated with the merger of Polish energy groups Orlen and Lotos.
Buying a stake in the Gdańsk refinery could allow MOL to source fuel more directly for its Polish service stations, potentially strengthening its supply chain and expanding its role beyond retail distribution into refining.
Analysts cited by Rzeczpospolita see the refinery interest as commercially attractive, although fluctuating refining margins could make its value difficult to assess. The newspaper reports that a complete Saudi Aramco withdrawal from Poland is considered less likely than a sale of selected assets, which could include the fuel wholesaler Aramco Fuels Poland and the refinery stake.
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Orlen faces restrictions on buying back its stake
Poland’s state-controlled Orlen owns the remaining 70 per cent of the Gdańsk refinery. However, it may not be able simply to buy back the Saudi stake.
The European Commission required the disposal of certain Lotos assets as a condition of approving the Orlen-Lotos merger, with the aim of preserving competition and preventing excessive market concentration. That history complicates the ownership question, although Polish authorities could have a significant say in assessing a potential new investor, given the refinery’s importance to national energy security.
Any transaction would therefore involve more than a straightforward commercial decision, with competition rules and the interests of the Polish state likely to be important considerations.
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Regional expansion brings opportunities and risks
The reported sale discussions come as MOL is also pursuing a possible acquisition of the Russian-owned stake in Serbia’s NIS oil company. If both transactions were completed, they could significantly strengthen the Hungarian group’s refining and fuel-market position across Central Europe.
However, expanding on two fronts would also bring substantial financing requirements and potential regulatory hurdles. Competition authorities would need to assess the implications of any deal, while the commercial case would depend on the price of the assets and future refining profitability.
For now, Saudi Aramco is reportedly examining its options rather than committing to a sale. MOL’s status as a potential frontrunner remains based on Polish media reporting and analyst assessments, and the eventual buyer, scope and timing of any transaction are still uncertain.
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