Lake Balaton, Hungary’s most popular holiday destination, could shrink into three separate areas of open water by the end of the century if no measures are taken to replenish its water supply, according to a worrying climate scenario presented at a conference in Tihany. Experts warn that climate change, persistent drought and construction around the lake could accelerate the deterioration.
Climate model paints worrying picture of Balaton’s future
Hydraulic engineer Bence Fülöp presented research models examining Lake Balaton’s future water levels at a nature conservation conference held in Tihany in early October, Veol reported. According to a 2024 climate model he cited, the lake could face a dramatic deterioration in its water balance during the final third of the 21st century if no additional water is supplied.
Under the model’s pessimistic RCP8.5 climate scenario, the lake could effectively retreat into three larger, separate basins. At a water level of minus two metres, only areas deeper than one metre would potentially remain as open water.
Although this is a probability-based projection under a particularly unfavourable climate scenario rather than a certain prediction, its implications are serious. According to Fülöp, maintaining the lake’s current size towards the end of the century may require substantial and eventually continuous water replenishment if present trends continue.
Even such interventions, however, would not eliminate fluctuations in water levels.
Lake Balaton has already lost significant amounts of water
The warning comes as Hungary’s largest lake has experienced considerable water loss in recent years. During the summer of 2026, its water level fell by 34 centimetres between mid-June and 27 August, dropping from 77 to 43 centimetres on the water gauge.
Other signs of water stress have also emerged around the lake. The water level of Tihany’s Inner Lake (Belső-tó), a separate hydrological system, fell dramatically, exposing large sections of its bed. Mass fish deaths have also been reported in the region.
While the condition of the Inner Lake cannot be used to draw direct conclusions about the future of Lake Balaton, it illustrates the visible consequences of prolonged drought and water shortages in the area.
Make things easier with professional support in English. Explore Daily News Hungary’s Services in English and find the help you need.
Construction around the lake could make matters worse
Fülöp also highlighted the impact of development projects and changing land use around Balaton. According to the engineer, construction can intensify processes already driven by rising temperatures and changing water conditions.
This means that adapting to climate change will require more than technical interventions. Protecting natural areas and introducing nature-based solutions will also be essential, he argued.
The issue is particularly relevant as several settlements around the lake face growing pressure from construction projects, residential developments and the loss of green spaces.
There are already local initiatives aimed at addressing water shortages. Balatonalmádi’s local council, for example, introduced water retention measures during the critical summer shortage, while protests against residential developments in Balatonfüred have also raised concerns about pressure on the water network and disappearing green areas.
