Fresh official figures show a sharp deterioration in Hungary’s government balance compared with a year earlier, while the government has significantly revised its full-year deficit expectations.

Deficit more than nine times higher than a year earlier

Hungary’s general government sector recorded a HUF 2,809.5 billion deficit in the first half of 2026, equivalent to 6.2% of GDP, according to preliminary figures published by the Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) on Thursday.

The figure represents a major deterioration compared with the first half of 2025, when the government recorded a deficit of HUF 310 billion, or 0.7% of GDP. The balance was HUF 1,582 billion worse year-on-year, equivalent to a deterioration of 3.3 percentage points as a share of GDP.

The quarterly figures provide further context. The first quarter accounted for roughly HUF 2,051 billion of the first-half deficit, while the second-quarter shortfall was HUF 758.2 billion.

The second quarter covered the period when the previous and current governments were in transition. The Tisza government took office in May, while the first quarter was the final full quarter of the previous administration.

Spending rose much faster than revenue

Government-sector revenue reached HUF 19,018.1 billion in the first six months of the year, while expenditure amounted to HUF 21,827.6 billion.

Revenue increased by HUF 539 billion, or 2.9%, compared with the same period of 2025. The largest increase came from actual social security contributions, which rose by HUF 473 billion, or 10.4%. Income-tax revenue increased by HUF 313 billion, while VAT revenue was HUF 163 billion higher than a year earlier.

Expenditure, however, increased by HUF 2,121 billion, or 10.8%.

The largest increase was recorded in employee compensation, which rose by HUF 1,044 billion, or 23.1%. Cash social benefits increased by HUF 609 billion, while other government-sector expenditure rose by HUF 607 billion. At the same time, gross fixed capital formation fell by HUF 311 billion, or 21.5%.

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New figures revise Hungary’s fiscal outlook

The latest KSH figures were released alongside Hungary’s updated Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) notification, which the country submits to the European Union twice a year.

The updated fiscal calculations have changed several key figures compared with the previous government’s spring forecast. According to 444.hu’s analysis of the latest notification, the expected 2026 government deficit has been revised from HUF 4,745 billion to HUF 6,902 billion following the new government’s review of the budget.

The previous government’s spring projection also put Hungary’s expected government debt above HUF 70,000 billion for the first time, according to 444.hu. The latest assessment has raised the expected level further.

The revised figures come after Finance Minister András Kármán said during the government’s budget review that previously unaccounted-for major expenditures had been identified. These claims concern the structure of the inherited budget and are separate from the KSH’s statistical measurement of the deficit.

The first half was already enough to put pressure on the annual target

The latest data follow a particularly weak first quarter. KSH previously reported a HUF 2,090 billion deficit, equivalent to 9.0% of GDP, for January–March. Government expenditure in that period increased by 18.7% year-on-year, while gross fixed capital formation fell by 26.2%.

The second quarter was less severe in absolute terms, but its deficit was still HUF 758.2 billion, or 3.3% of GDP. Compared with the second quarter of 2025, revenue fell by HUF 359 billion while expenditure increased by HUF 462 billion.

For comparison, Hungary’s full-year government deficit in 2025 was HUF 4,145 billion, or 4.7% of GDP, according to KSH’s latest revised figure. Government debt at the end of 2025 stood at HUF 64,923 billion, equivalent to 74.4% of GDP.