The latest survey by the independent pollster Medián — which accurately forecast April’s election result and has an excellent record in predicting previous parliamentary contests — suggests that the Tisza Party’s months-long surge has stalled. Although it remains by far the most popular political force, its support has fallen by several percentage points compared with June, while both Fidesz and the far-Right Mi Hazánk have edged upwards. The research also indicates that Péter Magyar’s nomination of Judit Polgár for the presidency — made without the promised public consultation — amounted to a serious political misstep.
Tisza’s rise falters
The upward trajectory of the Tisza Party’s popularity appears to have broken. According to Medián’s poll, conducted between July 22 and 24 for HVG, support for the party has slipped by 3–5 percentage points since June.
At present, 57 per cent of the overall population would back Tisza in a hypothetical near-term election, while among decided voters the figure stands at 66 per cent. Although this remains significantly higher than the party’s mid-April rating — and far exceeds the best result ever recorded by Fidesz — the decline from late June is unmistakable.
That said, with support at such extraordinary levels, some degree of correction was arguably inevitable. Under Hungary’s electoral system, it remains notable that Tisza would still secure a two-thirds majority among committed voters even in a purely list-based vote. Medián emphasised that no clear causal link can be established between the dip in support and the so-called “Polgár affair”.
Fidesz and Mi Hazánk gain ground
As Tisza’s support softened, Fidesz registered a modest uptick within the margin of error. The governing party would attract 19 per cent of the total population, 22 per cent of decided voters and 23 per cent of committed voters — slight increases across all categories compared with the previous month.
Mi Hazánk also improved its standing: 7 per cent of the total population and 9 per cent of decided voters would support the party. The survey further suggests that relatively few voters remain undecided.
Analyst: honeymoon over
Political analyst Gábor Török wrote that the data now support the view that the Tisza government’s “honeymoon period” has come to an end, and that Péter Magyar’s nomination of Judit Polgár was a political error. At the same time, he cautioned that the downturn is hardly surprising: Tisza’s lead remains unprecedented, and levels of support for Fidesz-KDNP are still historically high.
In an earlier post, Török shared a trend line charting Fidesz’s support between 2010 and 2014 — the first term of its two-thirds majority — suggesting it may prove instructive to compare this with Tisza’s trajectory. Even now, he argued, two data points and a discernible trend line can already be identified.
This bothered voters about Péter Magyar’s process
The poll was conducted at a time when public debate was dominated by the resignation of President Tamás Sulyok and Péter Magyar’s ultimately unsuccessful attempt to nominate Judit Polgár for the presidency. According to Medián, 97 per cent of adults were aware that a new president must be elected, and 94 per cent had heard Polgár’s name mentioned in connection with the post.
Yet only one-third of respondents considered the chess grandmaster a suitable candidate, while 42 per cent opposed the idea. Even among Tisza voters, fewer than half (43 per cent) viewed her as a good choice, and roughly a third were explicitly against her. The controversy, however, centred less on Polgár herself.
Two-thirds of respondents were troubled by the manner of the nomination: only hours before putting Polgár forward, Magyar had promised a public consultation, only to announce her candidacy abruptly. Even among Tisza supporters, 60 per cent criticised this approach, while just 22 per cent approved. Polgár ultimately declined the nomination, and Magyar later apologised, admitting he had been carried away and had made a communication error.
PM Magyar presents Hungarian Grand Prix trophy to Lando Norris after record-breaking race
Little enthusiasm for presidency
Medián also examined whom voters would prefer as head of state. When asked an open-ended question, however, 60 per cent of respondents could not name a candidate.
Former justice minister Péter Bárándy received the most spontaneous mentions, cited by 8 per cent of respondents. Ákos Hadházy, a former Momentum politician turned independent MP, was named by 6 per cent, while Péter Márki-Zay — the opposition’s 2022 prime ministerial candidate — was mentioned by 5 per cent.
Orbán changes tone at Tusványos: Fidesz recast its role as “resistance politics” shifts into gear
