On Polymarket, you can bet on almost anything – and its opposite. Now you can place your money on who will become Hungary’s next president. The website, which has been blocked in Hungary, has already “predicted” victories for Donald Trump and Péter Magyar. If it gets this one right, it could prove a particularly humiliating blow for Fidesz – and for Viktor Orbán personally.
A communications blunder over Judit Polgár
On the night of his election victory, Péter Magyar made it clear which public officials and other leaders appointed or elected by Fidesz – but whom he regarded as puppets – should resign within a matter of weeks. At the top of his list was Tamás Sulyok, then Hungary’s president. All Magyar, the prime minister-in-waiting, expected of him was to ask him to form a government and then resign immediately afterwards.
Sulyok did not resign. The defeated Fidesz made a feeble attempt to stand behind him, invoking alleged Tisza authoritarianism, but the argument attracted little meaningful public support. By then, Sulyok’s name had become inseparable from the Orbán system, and only the most committed Fidesz voters – just 15 to 20 per cent of the population – believed he should remain in office.
The stand-off was resolved when the Tisza parliamentary supermajority passed a constitutional amendment terminating Sulyok’s mandate. The president then signed it.
Péter Magyar announced a broad public consultation on the identity of the next president, invited suggestions and, just a few hours later, named chess legend Judit Polgár. Both Tisza supporters and its opponents turned against him, seeing the process as an Orbán-style snap decision rather than the promised consultation. Polgár ultimately declined the nomination. Magyar apologised, but his popularity appears to have suffered somewhat as a result of the blunder.
Parliament to elect a new president
Under Hungary’s current constitutional arrangements, the president must be elected by Parliament. Hungary is a parliamentary republic: power rests with the prime minister rather than the president. The head of state is largely ceremonial and has no realistic prospect of wielding executive power, although Judit Novák’s downfall demonstrated clearly that a president can still make mistakes – and that the consequences can rebound on the political community that elected them.
The Hungarian Parliament – in which Tisza holds 141 of the 199 seats – will make its decision next Tuesday. It is widely expected, however, to approve whoever the Tisza parliamentary group nominates this Saturday.
Based on the meetings held by Péter Magyar and Bálint Ruff, the minister in charge of the Prime Minister’s Office, there may be four possible candidates. Naturally, however, nothing prevents the prime minister from putting forward another name.
The potential candidates – based on the meetings
Ágnes Forsthoffer, Tisza’s Speaker of the House and acting president, would be the obvious choice. Magyar has already indicated that the current acting president will remain in the post until the constitutional drafting process is complete. That process could take years if the promised public consultation goes ahead.
Magyar and Ruff have met Botond Fülöp, the so-called “Vidéki Prókátor”, who was the first to notice that Katalin Novák had granted a presidential pardon to Endre Kónya, an aide to the director of the children’s home in Bicske, where children had been abused. The ensuing public outrage swept Novák from office.
Fülöp kept his identity secret for a long time, revealing it only after the change of government, on 11 May. Since then, he has spoken out on public affairs several times – and not always in support of the Tisza government, including most recently over the exercise of the presidential pardon power.
András Baka – Former president of the Supreme Court and a respected legal scholar, Baka was removed by Viktor Orbán in 2011 after publicly criticising the newly formed Fidesz government’s policies, its judicial reforms and changes affecting the independence of the courts.
Ignác Romsics – A Széchenyi Prize-winning historian, academic and university professor, Romsics is the author of the textbook on 20th-century Hungarian history used by more university students than any other when studying modern Hungarian history. He, too, has spoken out against the Fidesz government on several occasions. You can read his interview on the subject in a July 2025 Válasz Online podcast.
Who is Polymarket backing?
On an online betting platform where you can wager on almost anything, why should Hungary’s next president be any different? The same was possible in the most recent Hungarian parliamentary election, when Péter Magyar was already leading by a huge margin on Polymarket even though his advantage was not yet so clear in the opinion polls.
Polymarket currently allows users to bet on five prospective presidential candidates who have attracted more than 1 per cent of the wagers.
Botond Fülöp is the frontrunner, with 35 per cent of the bets placed on him. He is followed by Adrienn Laczó, a lawyer and former criminal judge, on 25 per cent, according to Blikk. Ágnes Forsthoffer, retired Lutheran Bishop Tamás Fabiny and Ignác Romsics are currently on 5, 4 and 4 per cent respectively, while Péter Bárándy, a former Socialist justice minister, stands at 3 per cent.
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Péter Magyar’s cryptic remarks
At today’s press conference, the prime minister said that ten names had been considered for the post. The Tisza leadership had already discussed the matter on Friday and would put forward three names. Anyone who had been following the news in recent days, he suggested, would not be surprised by the shortlist.
He added that the country now needed someone for the role who had never previously held a position in party politics.
He also indicated that one of the candidates was someone he had mentioned in a Facebook post, while another was someone whom the algorithm had prevented him from posting about, Telex wrote.
Who do you think will be Hungary’s next president?
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