Europe – including Hungary – may be facing another significant rise in food prices. The causes are wide-ranging, from changing weather patterns and the war in Ukraine to energy price fluctuations caused by the conflict in the Middle East and riverbeds drying up. Experts have already outlined which products are likely to become more expensive, and when. One thing appears certain: anyone wishing to maintain the same standard of living at the supermarket will have to dig deeper into their pockets, particularly next year.
Are we facing a food price explosion?
Another rise in food prices is taking shape across Europe, and Hungary is unlikely to escape its effects. Oxford Economics predicts that global food prices could rise by 11.8 per cent in 2026, followed by a further 4.8 per cent increase in 2027. This does not mean, however, that every food item in Hungarian shops will become 11.8 or 4.8 per cent more expensive. Changes in global commodity prices will feed through to domestic consumer prices with a delay, via processing, transport, retail and exchange-rate effects.
Several unfavourable trends are converging. Europe is being hit by further heatwaves and drought, while wars are injecting uncertainty into the energy, fertiliser and grain markets. In July, the estimate for this year’s grain harvest in the EU and Britain was cut from 295.5 million tonnes to 286.6 million tonnes – more than 23 million tonnes below last year’s crop. Meanwhile, the global price of diesel was 36 per cent higher in July than a year earlier, while fertiliser prices could rise by an annual average of 22 per cent.
The drought poses a particular threat to maize, vegetables and fruit, but it is also having a severe impact on livestock farming. Animals produce less milk in the heat, while the cost of feed crops is rising not only because of the drought, but also owing to higher transport and irrigation costs, according to an analysis by the Turkish news agency Anadolu. In time, this could push up the price of milk, cheese, butter, meat and eggs.
Dearer wheat, dearer bread
Wheat is a particularly important pressure point. Oxford Economics expects the price of wheat to rise by 36 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2026. Russia and Ukraine together account for almost 30 per cent of global wheat exports, making any disruption to shipping through the Black Sea a serious supply risk. More expensive wheat could eventually be reflected in the price of flour, bread, bakery products, pasta, breakfast cereals and biscuits.
How the price rises will unfold
Shoppers are likely to feel the first effects in fresh vegetables and fruit. According to Oxford Economics, prices could respond to crop losses within two to three months, meaning that the increase may already be noticeable in October and November. The pass-through to processed foods is slower: the strongest impact on bread, pasta, cheese, wine and cooking oil could be felt between February and May 2027.
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Hungary will not be able to insulate itself from these developments. Although it is a significant grain producer, the prices of wheat, maize and oilseeds are linked to international markets. The country is also dependent on imports for fertiliser, energy, pesticides, certain types of animal feed and some packaging materials, according to Világgazdaság. On top of that, drought at home could further restrict supplies of vegetables, fruit and feed crops.
Hungarian shops could therefore see fresh produce become more expensive first, in the autumn, followed later by increases in the price of bread, flour, pasta, cooking oil and animal-based food products.
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